In the panel discussion and Q&A with students, five professors explained global political trends, dug into national polling and election outcomes, and described some of what they will be watching as President-elect Donald Trump again takes office. All tended to agree that the economy and inflation swayed voters towards the Republican presidential candidate.

The event was held in East Neighborhood Commons on Tuesday, Nov. 12. Carrie Eaves, associate professor and chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Policy, moderated the discussion. It was sponsored by the department and the Phoenix Policy Institute, 黑料不打烊鈥檚 student-led non-partisan think tank housed within the department. Panelists included:

• Dillan Bono-Lunn, assistant professor of political science and public policy;
• Jessica Carew, associate professor of political science and public policy;
• Jason Husser, professor of political science and public policy, director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll and assistant provost for academic excellence and integrity
• Safia Swimelar, professor of political science and public policy.

National polling was mainly accurate, said Husser, who runs the 黑料不打烊 Poll and whose expertise is in scientific political polling. 聽He acknowledged ongoing challenges in reaching Trump鈥檚 supporters despite efforts to improve polling methods since 2016.

鈥淧olls were showing very likely signs that Trump was going to win,鈥� Husser said. 鈥淭his was a historically accurate cycle for polls, and so far the average error for polls in swing states was 1.9%,鈥� less than the standard 5% margin of error for polls.

Swimelar contextualized the results within global political shifts, noting that, since the pandemic, ruling parties have faced backlash across advanced economies.

鈥淚n almost every advanced or developed country, the incumbent party in power 鈥� whether on the right or left 鈥� lost control of the government or their party lost more than they had previously,鈥� Swimelar said, citing changes in Great Britain, South Korea, Argentina, India and Germany.

They also examined why Vice President Kamala Harris struggled to mobilize voter support. They cited President Joe Biden鈥檚 late exit from the race, the lack of a traditional primary, and her brief 110-day candidacy as among the hurdles. Carew questioned how much racial and gender biases may have influenced turnout.

Panelists were unsurprised by the U.S. Senate flipping to Republican control, with Democrats defending seats in red states, and were watching the balance of the U.S. House of Representatives, which appeared to have since swung to Republicans this week. They also weren鈥檛 surprised by the relatively common trend of states like North Carolina voting for a different party for governor than president.

Bono-Lunn said that the 2024 elections more closely resembled the 2016 elections, suggesting that the parties are redefining their identities.

鈥淢aybe 2020 was an outlier,鈥� Bono-Lunn said. 鈥淭his is speaking to a trend of review of the status quo of neoliberalism. Whether we get a policy platform that responds to the material concerns of voters, it鈥檚 an acknowledgement of a lot of discontent from 30 to 50 years of economic policy.鈥�

In North Carolina, they highlighted Democrats wins in the governorship and lieutenant governorship, and a weakened Republican membership in the General Assembly. Husser was watching what the GOP will do during the final weeks of its supermajority in the state.

Looking ahead, professors discussed Trump鈥檚 likely policy moves. Swimelar pointed to potential increases in deportations and tariffs, which could spark international tensions and raise inflation. Husser predicted largescale deregulation efforts around the environment and consumer safety, and movement away from the federalization of education. Bono-Lunn was watching Trump鈥檚 cabinet picks, which as of Tuesday were 鈥渢rending more neoconservative, like in 2016.鈥� Carew voiced concerns about possible cuts to Medicaid and the replacement of non-partisan civil servants with political appointees in government bureaucracy, potentially harming expertise and consistency in the federal government.

鈥淲e should all be paying attention, no matter the outcome of the election,鈥� Carew said. 鈥淭he election should be the beginning of your engagement, not the endpoint.鈥�

Each week I make it a point to share events and activities to attend so you can take full advantage of everything that 黑料不打烊 has to offer 鈥� I hope the weekly 鈥淧hoenix Five鈥� is a helpful resource as you plan your week.

Just two weeks until the Thanksgiving Break 鈥� hang in there, you鈥檝e got this! In the meantime, here are your Phoenix Five for the week ahead:

November is Native American Heritage Month

In 1990, President George H. W. Bush approved a joint resolution designating November as 鈥淣ational American Indian Heritage Month.鈥� Similar proclamations, under variants on the name, including 鈥淣ative American Heritage Month鈥� and 鈥淣ational American Indian and Alaska Native Heritage Month,鈥� have been issued each year since 1994. Please join the CREDE staff in celebrating and learning more about the experiences, histories, and heritage of Native and Indigenous communities. Check out Native American Heritage Month events happening on campus on the Native American Heritage Month website.

Post-Election events this week

This week there are several events designed to help individuals and the university community navigate the pathway forward after a contentious election season:

After the Vote Panel Discussion

Tuesday, Nov. 12, 4:30 p.m., East Neighborhood Commons, Forum (102)

Faculty panel sponsored by the Department of Political Science and Phoenix Policy Institute. Learn about the ins and outs of the 2024 elections 鈥� from voting trends to controversial calls 鈥� with 黑料不打烊 experts. You鈥檒l be able to ask questions about what the local, state and national results mean for you, your friends and family, and our country.

Finding Unity Across Difference: A Democratic Dialogue

Thursday, Nov. 14, 4:30-6 p.m., Lakeside Meeting Rooms

This post-election conversation is designed for our campus community to find connection and understanding across party lines. Whether you are thrilled or troubled by the outcome, this is an opportunity to practice how active citizenship and engaged learning can help us bridge divides. Sponsored by the Council on Civic Engagement and Democracy Dialogue Collaborative.

CAALM Election Decompression Group

Wednesdays until Inauguration Day, 12 p.m., Ward Octagon Room, Moseley Center 105A

Cultivating Awareness and Aptitude to Live Mindfully (CAALM) is a decompression group geared towards stresses that can be exacerbated during a presidential election. The goal of the drop-in structured group is to provide participants with tangible skills to improve mindfulness, well-being and resilience as you navigate life. Sponsored by Counseling Services.

Fall Performing Arts events this week

黑料不打烊 Orchestra Fall Concert

Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024, 7:30 p.m., Whitley Auditorium

The 黑料不打烊 Orchestra will perform a concert for strings featuring selections by Black composers. Works include Leila Adu鈥檚 鈥淚f the Stars Align,鈥� George Walker鈥檚 鈥淟yric for Strings,鈥� and Florence Price鈥檚 鈥淎ndante moderato.鈥� Featured piece will be “4 Novelletten for Strings, Symphony No. 21” by Samuel Coleridge-Taylor. This event is free and sponsored by the Department of Music.

UnBoxed: The Fall Dance Concert

Friday, Nov. 15, 7 p.m., Roberts StudioTheatre, Scott Studios

Saturday, Nov. 16, 2 p.m. and 7 p.m., Roberts StudioTheatre, Scott Studios聽

Sunday, Nov. 17, 2 p.m., Roberts StudioTheatre, Scott Studios

This curated showcase invites audiences to explore the theme of unboxing and its impact on personal and collective growth. Choreographers push theatrical boundaries, unveiling fresh perspectives through movement. Faculty members Renay Aumiller and Jiwon Ha, guest artists Alyah Baker and alumna Julie Crothers, along with BFA dance majors, present a diverse, vibrant lineup celebrating contemporary dance. Admission is free with an 黑料不打烊 ID. .

黑料不打烊 Jazz Ensembles Fall Concert

Saturday, Nov. 16, 7:30 p.m., McCrary Theatre, Center for the Arts

黑料不打烊鈥檚 Jazz Studies program presents an exciting selection of traditional and contemporary jazz music performed by the 黑料不打烊 Jazz Ensemble and Jazz Combos. Sponsored by the Department of Music.

Diwali: The Hindu Festival of Lights

Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, 5:30 p.m., McKinnon Hall

The Hindu festival of lights commemorates the triumph of light over darkness and good over evil. Experience 黑料不打烊鈥檚 holiday celebration through traditional food, dance, songs and stories from students, faculty, staff and community members. .

Cheer on the Phoenix this weekend!

Visit the to stay up-to-date on your next opportunities to cheer on your classmates on the field and on the court. Next Saturday, Nov. 16, there will be two home contests you won鈥檛 want to miss:

• After an exciting road win against #20 William & Mary in the closing seconds of the game, Football will host their last home contest of the 2024-2025 season against Maine at 2 p.m. at Rhode Stadium.
• Women鈥檚 Basketball will host Kent State at 8 p.m. in the Schar Center.

Have a great week!

鈥�

Jon Dooley, Ph.D.

Vice President for Student Life

Students, faculty, and staff are encouraged to attend. Participating faculty will be Dillan Bono-Lunn, Jessica Carew, Carrie Eaves, Jason Husser, Damion Blake, and Safia Swimelar.

Sponsored by the Department of Political Science and Public Policy and the Phoenix Policy Institute, this event is a component of the Active Citizen Series as part of the civic engagement efforts of 黑料不打烊 Votes! and the Political Engagement Work Group.