In a survey of 800 North Carolina adults conducted from March 13 to 20, 2026, 70% said they have heard a “great deal” or “some” about Cooper, compared to just 35% who have heard the same amount about his Republican opponent, Michael Whatley.

Whatley, who formerly served as chair of the Republican National Committee and the North Carolina Republican Party, remains largely unknown to registered voters. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (62%) said they have heard “only a little” (33%) or “nothing” (29%) about him.

When asked about their overall impressions, 48% of registered voters viewed Cooper favorably and 34% unfavorably. For Whatley, 25% of registered voters viewed him favorably, 34% unfavorably and a plurality of 41% hold a neutral opinion.听

Election fairness and administration

Looking ahead to the fall mid-terms, the poll highlights a striking drop in public confidence regarding the integrity of the national vote count. Only 38% of North Carolinians said they believe this year鈥檚 election will produce a fair and accurate count of the votes cast nationwide.

While only 21% explicitly said the count will听not听be fair, a sizable 41% of voters said they are “unsure.” This represents a significant decline in confidence from an 黑料不打烊 Poll conducted in August 2024, when 48% believed the count would be fair and accurate, and 32% were unsure.

Despite this growing uncertainty, North Carolinians fiercely oppose the idea of the federal government taking over election administration. When asked if election administration should remain a state government responsibility or change to a federal responsibility, 63% of residents said it should remain with the states. Only 12% support nationalizing voting processes, while 25% are unsure.

The preference for state-run elections crosses party lines: 79% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, and 53% of Independents all agreed that state governments should retain primary responsibility for election administration within their borders.

鈥淲hile the U.S. Senate race continues to take shape around a major gap in voter familiarity with the candidates, a broader story emerging from the 2026 election is how North Carolinians view the electoral process itself,鈥� said Jason Husser, director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll. 鈥淣orth Carolinians are increasingly anxious and uncertain about whether the national vote count will be fair, even more than they were in the contentious 2024 election. Yet, most voters do not see federal intervention as the solution. Rather, we measured a strong, bipartisan consensus that election administration belongs in the hands of the states.鈥�

Regarding the partisan balance of power, voters currently show a slight preference for Democratic control of Congress. Forty percent of respondents favored Democratic to control of both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 elections, compared to 35% who preferred Republican control.

State approval ratings and policy issues

The poll also surveyed North Carolinians on state leadership and several hot-button policy issues:

• Approval Ratings:听Democratic Gov. Josh Stein received a positive job approval rating (43% approve, 27% disapprove). By contrast, the North Carolina General Assembly earns lower marks, with just 21% approving of the legislature’s job performance and 37% disapproving (42% are unsure).
• Data Centers:听As technology infrastructure expands globally, 44% of residents said they would oppose the construction of a large data center in their local community, compared to 24% who would support it and 32% who were unsure.
• Concealed Carry Permits:听The General Assembly has recently considered allowing concealed carry of handguns without a permit. A clear majority of North Carolinians (56%) said they oppose removing the permit requirement, which currently involves a fee, safety training and a background check. Only 30% supported removing the requirement. These numbers reflect slight change from a that found 54% opposed to removing the requirement.
• Healthcare:听A large majority (68%) said they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned that federal government cuts in health care spending might make it harder for them to get the care they need. Furthermore, 47% of respondents grade the U.S. healthcare system with a “D” or “F,” while 30% give it a “C.”
• Economy: Opinions about the North Carolina economy remained virtually unchanged compared with the September 2025 黑料不打烊 Poll, with 29% giving the state鈥檚 economic condition an 鈥淎鈥� or 鈥淏鈥� and 71% giving it a 鈥淐,鈥� 鈥淒鈥� or 鈥淔.鈥�

Poll Methodology

Access the poll topline and methodology at:听. The survey was developed by the 黑料不打烊 Poll and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm YouGov as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between March 13 and March 20, 2026, YouGov interviewed 928 North Carolina adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores based on age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-4.43%.

About the 黑料不打烊 Poll

Established in 2000, the 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts national and North Carolina surveys on issues of importance to voters and residents. Information from these polls is shared with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and operates as the neutral, non-biased information resource.

The 黑料不打烊 Poll is a charter member of the听, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in 2014 to educate polling firms on ways to better share how they collect and interpret their information. The 黑料不打烊 Poll鈥檚 voluntary participation in this initiative signifies a willingness to clearly state in its reports how questions were asked, in what order, who funded the poll and then conducted it, and a definition of the population under study, among other details.

In a survey conducted by the 黑料不打烊 Poll, nearly two-thirds of North Carolinians (62%) opposed sending a large number of U.S. ground troops into Iran, with only 16% expressing support. The strong opposition spans political affiliations, including 85% of Democrats, 62% of Independents and a 42% plurality of Republicans. Only 27% of Republicans favored a large troop deployment in Iran, with 31% unsure.

The survey of 800 North Carolina adults was conducted from March 13 to 20, 2026. The poll鈥檚 margin of error is +/-4.43%.

Beyond the prospect of ground troops, a majority of the poll respondents (51%) opposed current U.S. military involvement in Iran overall, compared to 30% who supported it. When asked about President Donald Trump鈥檚 military actions since January 2025, 52% of respondents said he has “gone too far” in using military force abroad, while 32% said he has done about what is necessary.

Looking ahead, 44% of North Carolinians said they expect that Americans will be less safe one year from today as a result of recent military actions in Iran, compared to 29% who said Americans will be more safe. In addition, 58% of North Carolinians said the president should be required to get Congressional approval before taking military actions like those recently seen in Iran and Venezuela.

鈥淣orth Carolinians are showing clear hesitation about further military escalation,鈥� said Jason Husser, director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll. 鈥淭he strong opposition to deploying ground troops, coupled with the bipartisan desire for Congressional oversight, signals significant public anxiety about the long-term safety and direction of U.S. involvement abroad.鈥�

Assessing Trump鈥檚 job performance and the administration

President Donald Trump鈥檚 approval rating in the state continues to face a widening gap. In this poll, 35% of North Carolinians approved of the job he is doing as president, while 55% disapproved. In March 2025, the gap was much narrower, with 42% approving and 45% disapproving.

Approval ratings for key administration figures are strongly correlated with perceptions of President Trump. Vice President JD Vance received a 34% approval rating with 45% disapproving. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stood at 34% approval and 38% disapproval, while Secretary of Defense (Secretary of War) Pete Hegseth held 30% approval and 46% disapproval ratings.

The U.S. Congress got the worst approval rating among measured institutions, with 64% disapproving of the job Congress is doing, compared with just 11% who approved.

Economic grades and tariff impacts

More than half of North Carolinians (55%) said the national economy has gotten worse since President Trump took office last year, with only 20% saying it has gotten better and 25% saying it has stayed about the same. When asked to assign a letter grade to the national economy, 47% gave a grade of 鈥淒鈥� or 鈥淔,鈥� while just 20% gave an 鈥淎鈥� or 鈥淏.鈥�

Commenting on their own financial situation, 53% said they have experienced a negative impact from the Trump administration鈥檚 tariffs on goods imported from other countries. This represents an increase from September 2025, when 46% reported negative impacts. Only 12% in the latest poll said the tariffs have had a positive impact personally.

Views on ICE and local law enforcement

On immigration enforcement, 52% of respondents held a negative overall impression of the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), compared to 33% who viewed the agency positively. Democrats (87%) and Independents (61%) expressed overwhelmingly negative impressions of ICE while 68% of Republicans had a positive impression.

Poll respondents were split on whether state, county and local law enforcement agencies should assist federal ICE officers in enforcing federal immigration laws. In this poll, 41% said local agencies should assist, while 38% said they should not. Support for local assistance has dropped five points since September 2025, when 46% were in favor.

Poll Methodology

Access the poll topline and methodology at:听. The survey was developed by the 黑料不打烊 Poll and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm YouGov as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between March 13 and March 20, 2026, YouGov interviewed 928 North Carolina adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores based on age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-4.43%.

About the 黑料不打烊 Poll

Established in 2000, the 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts national and North Carolina surveys on issues of importance to voters and residents. Information from these polls is shared with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and operates as the neutral, non-biased information resource.

The 黑料不打烊 Poll is a charter member of the听, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in 2014 to educate polling firms on ways to better share how they collect and interpret their information. The 黑料不打烊 Poll鈥檚 voluntary participation in this initiative signifies a willingness to clearly state in its reports how questions were asked, in what order, who funded the poll and then conducted it, and a definition of the population under study, among other details.

A majority of survey respondents laid blame for school performance on elected leaders at both the state and local levels, and the poll found that North Carolinians believe schools are underfunded, even while many people express confusion about the way public education is structured.

The poll followed President Donald Trump鈥檚 executive order to 鈥渞eturn authority over education to the State and local communities鈥� and 鈥渆nable parents, teachers and communities to best ensure student success.鈥� On Nov. 18, the U.S. Department of Education announced plans to transfer education programs to six other federal agencies, with K-12 programs moved to the Department of Labor.

To understand public attitudes and knowledge about K-12 education programs in North Carolina, the 黑料不打烊 Poll partnered with 黑料不打烊鈥檚 Dr. Jo Watts Williams School of Education to design a survey on a wide range of educational issues. The poll, conducted for the 黑料不打烊 Poll by YouGov from Nov. 19 to Dec. 1, included 800 adults in the state and has a margin of error of +/- 4.24%.

Views on School Quality in North Carolina

When asked to assign letter grades to K-12 schools, North Carolinians tended to give mediocre marks, with the lowest grades for traditional public schools and a significant share unsure what grades to assign to charter schools, home schools and private schools.

Percent giving schools grades of 鈥淐鈥�, 鈥淒鈥� or 鈥淔鈥�

• Traditional public schools: 50%
• Charter schools: 28%
• Home schools: 27%
• Private schools: 20%

Percent giving schools grades of 鈥淎鈥� or 鈥淏鈥�

• Private schools: 51%
• Charter schools: 41%
• Home schools: 40%
• Traditional public schools: 36%

In assessing public schools in their local area, just under half (48%) of parents/guardians of children under age 18 gave their local schools an 鈥淎鈥� or 鈥淏鈥�, while 44% of those who are not parents/guardians gave an 鈥淎鈥� or 鈥淏鈥� grade.

About three-quarters of North Carolinians put the most blame for poor-performing public schools in their area on state government and the local school boards. School principals and parents get somewhat less blame and teachers get the least blame:

鈥淎 lot鈥� or 鈥渟ome blame鈥� for poor-performing schools

• State government: 77%
• Local school boards: 77%
• Principals: 67%
• Parents: 64%
• Teachers: 57%

Poll respondents gave low marks to the state鈥檚 top education and political leaders, with 50% saying they do not work well together to improve schools, compared with 35% who said the leaders work well on behalf of schools.

鈥淲e found clear evidence that North Carolinians want to see more effective governance of K-12 schools,鈥� said Jason Husser, director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll. 鈥淎 large majority thought state government bears some of the blame when schools underperform.鈥�

Only 26% said public school funding in North Carolina is distributed fairly among counties, with 48% saying funding is distributed unfairly and 26% not sure.

An overwhelming 94% said factors such as poverty, neighborhood safety or family stability are major factors in school underperformance. Beyond those issues, insufficient funding and lack of parental involvement were also ranked as top factors in school underperformance:

Most common factors for school underperformance

• Insufficient funding and resources – 60%
• Lack of parental involvement – 52%
• Weak school management – 38%
• Student challenges outside of school – 30%
• Poorly prepared teachers – 26%
• Political conflict among leaders – 24%
• Technological distractions – 22%
• Broader community or crime problems – 18%

“Sixty percent identified the real problem: insufficient funding,鈥� said Ann Bullock, dean of the Dr. Jo Watts Williams School of Education at 黑料不打烊. 鈥淪chools need to be funded at a level to meet the needs of the students in each community. Education needs to be a priority for change to happen.”

Considering concerns about school quality, survey respondents were fairly evenly split about the impact of education on the state鈥檚 economy and business climate. Public education is seen as more of an asset by 29% of North Carolinians, with 26% saying it鈥檚 more of a liability and 22% saying the schools don鈥檛 make much difference.

School Curriculum in North Carolina

North Carolinians have high expectations for student achievement across a wide range of skills. Skills deemed 鈥渧ery important鈥� included writing and composition, and financial literacy and money management (both at 77%), along with human-centered skills (72%) and basic scientific concepts and reasoning (70%). U.S. history and civics was seen as 鈥渧ery important鈥� by 61% of respondents, followed by household management and maintenance at 58% and technical skills like coding and data analysis at 57%.

Regarding artificial intelligence, 59% said high school graduates should understand how AI works as well as its benefits, risks and ethical issues. At the same time, 63% said schools should limit student use of AI tools, such as ChatGPT because of potential problems such as overreliance, bias, misinformation and privacy risks.

“While sixty-three percent want to limit AI tools in schools, 59% want students to understand AI deeply,鈥� Bullock said. 鈥淭he public wants AI education, not AI immersion. Educators should control when and how AI is used and teach the risks before handing over the tools.”

Despite recent news reports that people have less faith in the value of a college degree, 30% of respondents in this survey said a college degree is very valuable and 43% said a degree is somewhat valuable, with only 17% saying a college degree is not valuable.

Knowledge of the K-12 Educational System

Many North Carolinians said they are not sure about the basic structures of the state鈥檚 educational system. Only 40% correctly responded that charter schools are considered public schools in North Carolina, with 34% incorrectly saying charter schools are private and 26% saying they were unsure.

The largest share (36%) of poll respondents said they were unsure whether North Carolina鈥檚 charter schools and private schools that receive public voucher funds are subject to the same testing and reporting requirements as public schools. Charter schools in North Carolina generally mirror traditional public schools in testing and reporting requirements, whereas private schools taking voucher funds face only partial testing rules and less accountability.

Similarly, 28% said they were unsure how public schools in the state are funded, and just over half (52%) knew that local school board members are elected by voters and not appointed positions. As for the North Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction, only 41% knew this is an elected position and 31% said they were unsure about how that office is filled.

鈥淭hough North Carolinians, as a whole, were clear in wanting better schools, they expressed significant confusion about the mechanisms of decisions that influence school performance,鈥� Husser said. 鈥淚 suspect some of that confusion is due to the relatively complicated K-12 educational bureaucracy in North Carolina.鈥�

North Carolinians tended to underestimate how much public K-12 teachers are paid. Compared with the national average teacher salary of $72,030 (Source: National Education Association annual report), North Carolina teachers earn $58,292. However, the average guess by respondents in this survey was that the average North Carolina teacher is paid $42,257 ($16,000 lower than the actual figure). The average entry-level teacher in the state earns $42,542.

A large majority of survey respondents (71%) said public school teachers in North Carolina are paid too little. Just under half (48%) said teachers get a great amount or fair amount of public respect, with 41% saying teachers get not much or no respect. Considering the rewards of teaching, the level of teacher pay and the work environment, 45% said it is likely they would encourage their child or a close family member to become a K-12 teacher in North Carolina, while 40% said they would be unlikely to do so.

Poll respondents strongly endorsed requirements for state-issued teaching licenses and teacher-preparation programs, with 48% saying those standards are extremely important and 29% saying they are very important. A large majority (82%) said they would support a state-funded teacher education program that would allow students to earn a debt-free college degree with intensive teacher training in exchange for working as a K-12 teacher in the state for several years.

鈥淣orth Carolinians value high quality teacher education and three-quarters want to see quality teacher preparation paired with scholarship programs,鈥� Bullock said. 鈥淐urrently, 51% of initially licensed (beginning) teachers are not fully licensed and are seeking alternative routes to licensure. Alternatively licensed teachers are more likely to leave the profession. High quality teacher education programs with scholarships could help fill this gap and put qualified teachers in classrooms.鈥�

Poll Methodology

Access the poll topline and methodology at: www.elon.edu/elonpoll. The survey was developed by the 黑料不打烊 Poll and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm YouGov as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between November 19 and December 1, YouGov interviewed 1,164 North Carolina adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset.

Throughout this report, the analysis of partisan differences compares the views of Republicans plus those who lean Republican in their voting preference with Democrats plus those who lean Democratic. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-4.24%.

About the 黑料不打烊 Poll

Established in 2000, the 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts national and North Carolina surveys on issues of importance to voters and residents. Information from these polls is shared with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and operates as the neutral, non-biased information resource.

The 黑料不打烊 Poll is a charter member of the听Transparency Initiative, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in 2014 to educate polling firms on ways to better share how they collect and interpret their information. The 黑料不打烊 Poll鈥檚 voluntary participation in this initiative signifies a willingness to clearly state in its reports how questions were asked, in what order, who funded the poll and then conducted it, and a definition of the population under study, among other details.

The article, “How to Fix the Mess of College Sports,” describes the current college sports system as “broken” due to “compulsive, destructive overspending.” The author, Sally Jenkins, calls for regulation from Congress to “create a fairer, more reasonable system,” noting that “without Congress鈥檚 intervention, athletic departments at schools that don鈥檛 win or have fewer resources will face trade-offs.”

In her argument, Jenkins cites the听 2025 Knight Commission/黑料不打烊 Poll survey, where “79 percent of (school officials) fear they鈥檒l have to rely on institutional money and student fees in the future to fund sports. Nearly seven in 10 respondents said that they favor national legislation that would limit how much they can spend on their athletic budgets.”

Read the full .

The survey of 800 North Carolina adults was conducted from Sept. 23 to Oct. 1, 2025, just as the federal government shutdown was about to begin.

When asked to assign a letter grade to the national economy, 76% gave a grade of 鈥淐,鈥� 鈥淒鈥� or 鈥淔.鈥� Similarly, 70% gave a 鈥淐鈥� or lower grade to the North Carolina economy.

Commenting on their own financial situation, 46% said they have felt a negative impact from the Trump administration鈥檚 import tariffs, while only 14% said the impact has been positive. Overall, 44% said they are less confident in their financial situation compared to a year ago, with 23% saying they are more confident.

North Carolina has experienced major reductions in federal spending, the number of federal employees and the elimination of research grants. As a result, 48% said there has been a negative impact on the state鈥檚 economy, with 25% saying the impact has been positive.

Assessing Trump鈥檚 job performance

Between March and September 2025, the gap between approval and disapproval of Trump鈥檚 job performance widened significantly. In an 黑料不打烊 poll of North Carolinians last March, 42% approved of the way he was handling his job while 45% disapproved鈥攁 gap of just 3 percentage points. By September, approval had fallen to 39% and disapproval had climbed to 50%, expanding the gap to 11 points. This growing divide indicates a noticeable shift toward greater public dissatisfaction with the president鈥檚 performance over the past six months.

鈥淣orth Carolinians鈥� economic concerns have heightened since President Trump took office,鈥� said Jason Husser, director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll. 鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing is a public that鈥檚 feeling squeezed by inflation, by tariffs and by uncertainty. When three out of four residents give the national economy a C or worse, it鈥檚 more than simple partisan reaction, it鈥檚 a signal of real economic anxiety.鈥�

What we鈥檙e seeing is a public that鈥檚 feeling squeezed by inflation, by tariffs and by uncertainty. When three out of four residents give the national economy a C or worse, it鈥檚 more than simple partisan reaction, it鈥檚 a signal of real economic anxiety.

– Professor Jason Husser, director, 黑料不打烊 Poll

In contrast, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein receives a 42% approval rating, with 24% disapproving of his job performance. That compares with a negative view of the North Carolina General Assembly; 35% disapprove of state lawmakers鈥� job performance, versus 24% who approve.

The U.S. Congress gets the worst approval rating, with 56% disapproving of the job Congress is doing, compared with 21% who approve.

Election outlooks

North Carolinians express low interest in the Nov. 4 municipal elections in the state. Just 12% said they are paying a great deal of attention to races for offices like mayor and city council, with 27% saying they are paying only a little attention and 26% saying they are paying no attention at all to the races.

Looking ahead to next year鈥檚 mid-term elections, North Carolinians are evenly split on which party they want to control the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives.

In the 2026 race for the open U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper holds a wide margin in name recognition over Michael Whatley, who recently served as chair of the Republican National Committee and was formerly chair of the North Carolina Republican Party.

Whatley is a North Carolina native who worked in President George W. Bush鈥檚 administration and campaigned for Trump in North Carolina in 2016. In this survey more than year before the election, 48% said they have heard nothing at all about Whatley and 26% said they have heard only a little.

Seventy-five percent of North Carolinians have heard a great deal or something about Roy Cooper, who served two terms as North Carolina governor and 16 years as attorney general.

鈥淢ichael Whatley faces a steep uphill climb in name recognition in the year between now and Election 2026,鈥� Husser said Jason Husser. 鈥淓ven after serving in high-profile national and state party roles, almost three-quarters of North Carolinians say they鈥檝e heard of him only a little or not at all. That鈥檚 a tough starting point for any major race, especially one in a swing state with an opponent who has an enormous visibility.鈥�

Healthcare concerns

With the federal government shutdown hinging on difficult issues related to potential cuts in healthcare coverage, a large majority (63%) of North Carolinians said they are very or somewhat concerned that it may become harder for them to get the care they need. According to Medicaid.gov, more than 2.5 million North Carolinians are enrolled in Medicaid and nearly 350,000 are enrolled in the Children鈥檚 Health Insurance Programs (CHIP). This represents about 26% of the state鈥檚 population of just over 11 million.

If the federal government cuts funding for Medicaid, 43% said North Carolina should increase its healthcare spending and 22% said the state should maintain its current healthcare spending.

Regarding current controversies over vaccinations, a majority (59%) expressed little or no concerns about getting access to the vaccines they want to receive. Democrats were most concerned about vaccine access (65%), while only 20% of Republicans expressed concerns.

Thinking back on the pandemic, 58% said North Carolina鈥檚 rules and restrictions related to the coronavirus were 鈥渁bout right,鈥� with 30% saying the state was too restrictive and 12% saying the state was not restrictive enough.

Poll Methodology

Access the poll topline and methodology at: www.elon.edu/elonpoll. The survey was developed by the 黑料不打烊 Poll and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm YouGov as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between September 23 and October 1, YouGov interviewed 907 North Carolina adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset.

Throughout this report, the analysis of partisan differences compares the views of Republicans plus those who lean Republican in their voting preference with Democrats plus those who lean Democratic. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-4.24%.

About the 黑料不打烊 Poll

Established in 2000, the 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts national and North Carolina surveys on issues of importance to voters and residents. Information from these polls is shared with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and operates as the neutral, non-biased information resource.

The 黑料不打烊 Poll is a charter member of the听Transparency Initiative, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in 2014 to educate polling firms on ways to better share how they collect and interpret their information. The 黑料不打烊 Poll鈥檚 voluntary participation in this initiative signifies a willingness to clearly state in its reports how questions were asked, in what order, who funded the poll and then conducted it, and a definition of the population under study, among other details.

The survey of 800 North Carolina adults from Sept. 23 to Oct. 1, 2025, followed the Aug. 22 fatal stabbing of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a light rail train in Charlotte and coincided with a Sept. 27 mass shooting at a waterfront bar in Southport, N.C.

The poll found that 61% of North Carolinians were concerned for their safety in outdoor areas with large crowds, 59% are concerned about safety on public transportation and 53% are concerned about safety in public places, such as shopping malls. In addition, 49% are concerned about safety in K-12 schools and 32% are worried about safety in churches and places of worship.

When asked about specific North Carolina cities, 49% said they would be very or somewhat concerned about their safety if spending time in Charlotte or Durham, with about 42% concerned about safety in Winston-Salem, and 41% concerned about safety in Raleigh or Greensboro.

鈥淎fter high-profile violent incidents close to home, many North Carolinians are evaluating how safe they feel in the state鈥檚 major cities as well as everyday spaces, from schools to transit systems to shopping centers,鈥� said Jason Husser director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll. 鈥淩epublicans tended to be much more concerned than Democrats about crime in the states鈥� large cities and on public transportation and in public spaces.鈥�

After high-profile violent incidents close to home, many North Carolinians are evaluating how safe they feel in the state鈥檚 major cities as well as everyday spaces, from schools to transit systems to shopping centers.

– Professor Jason Husser, director, 黑料不打烊 Poll

Citing crime levels in some major U.S. cities, President Donald Trump has deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles, Washington D.C., Chicago and Memphis, and he is considering deployments in other cities. Use of the National Guard in a law enforcement capacity in American cities was opposed by 47% of North Carolinians and supported by 42%.

There has been disagreement over whether the National Guard should be deployed to Charlotte, N.C., after the city鈥檚 police union sent a letter to Trump asking for the Guard鈥檚 help in dealing with violent crime in the city. In response, Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles and several other local, state and federal elected leaders said the National Guard is not needed in Charlotte.

This survey found that North Carolinians lean against deployments of the National Guard to major cities in the state for law enforcement purposes:

Assessing Trump鈥檚 major motivations for using the National Guard in U.S. cities, 48% said a major motive for him is furthering efforts on immigration enforcement and 42% said a major motivation is to reduce crime. At the same time, 39% said the major motive for the deployments is to distract attention from other issues, 38% said a prime motive for Trump is setting a precedent for using the military for law enforcement and 35% said a major motive is that he is trying to embarrass political opponents in those cities.

鈥淣orth Carolinians are torn on the idea of sending the National Guard into cities within the state and across the country,鈥� Husser said. 鈥淭hey are torn between seeing the military as a necessary response to high profile crime and questioning the move鈥檚 true purpose and potential overreach. A narrow plurality leans against deployment into North Carolina cities, but opinions shift depending on the city. Support is very slightly stronger for the National Guard to police Charlotte and Durham, while opposition rises for Raleigh, Greensboro and Winston-Salem. The sharp partisan divide鈥擱epublicans are far more supportive than Democrats鈥攕hows that views on the Guard鈥檚 role are shaped as much by politics as by place.鈥�

Charlie Kirk assassination and free speech

As a result of the Sept. 10, 2025, killing of conservative political activist Charlie Kirk, 68% of North Carolinians said they expect political violence to get worse over the next year, and 61% say relations between Democrats and Republicans will deteriorate. Majorities of supporters of both parties said they felt both problems will worsen.

Public comments about the Kirk assassination have raised questions about free speech in American society. In this poll, 34% of North Carolinians say people who make public statements that celebrate Kirk鈥檚 killing should lose their jobs, while 45% oppose that. A large majority (73%) of Democrats oppose firing people with job loss for celebrating Kirk鈥檚 death, while 65% of Republicans favor job loss for those who make those kind of public statements.

Asked if people should be fired for making public statements about Kirk鈥檚 beliefs if those statements do not celebrate his death, majorities of those in both parties said that should not happen. Still, 51% said they think freedom of speech rights are likely to deteriorate over the next year, with 17% saying speech rights will get better and 33% saying there will be no change.

Poll Methodology

Access the poll topline and methodology at www.elon.edu/elonpoll. The survey was developed by the 黑料不打烊 Poll and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between September 23 and October 1, YouGov interviewed 907 North Carolina adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset.

Throughout this report, the analysis of partisan differences compares the views of Republicans plus those who lean Republican in their voting preference with Democrats plus those who lean Democratic. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-4.24%.

About the 黑料不打烊 Poll

Established in 2000, the 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts national and North Carolina surveys on issues of importance to voters and residents. Information from these polls is shared with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and operates as the neutral, non-biased information resource.

The 黑料不打烊 Poll is a charter member of the听Transparency Initiative, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in 2014 to educate polling firms on ways to better share how they collect and interpret their information. The 黑料不打烊 Poll鈥檚 voluntary participation in this initiative signifies a willingness to clearly state in its reports how questions were asked, in what order, who funded the poll and then conducted it, and a definition of the population under study, among other details.

The findings, released Oct. 9, 2025 by the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics and the 黑料不打烊 Poll, paint a picture of a system under severe strain with the majority of leaders expressing negative views about the direction of Division I.

This new survey is particularly timely because federal lawmakers are debating legislation that would create sweeping changes for Division I athletics. The survey shows that Division I campus leaders, by large margins, support federal action to resolve issues like standards for NIL compensation and the classification of college athletes as employees.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a new era in college sports,鈥� said Amy Privette Perko, Knight Commission CEO, 鈥淎nd the candid views of Division I leaders suggest this new era could be a troubling one that could harm women鈥檚 and collegiate Olympic sports. These findings should help inform Congress as it works to build a new model for Division I sports.鈥�

The 黑料不打烊 Poll/Knight Commission survey found that campus leaders are deeply concerned about the financial sustainability of their athletics programs, current college athlete transfer rules and unprecedented changes they fear will harm women鈥檚 and collegiate Olympic sports. At the same time, they expressed a near-unanimous and unwavering commitment to the academic mission of college sports, with resounding support for maintaining academic standards and prioritizing graduation.

The survey captured the views of 376 university presidents and chancellors, athletics directors, senior woman administrators and faculty athletics representatives, in early August 2025. Each of these campus positions are legislatively mandated leadership roles within the existing NCAA Division I governing structure. The 26% response rate provides a statistically representative sample of these Division I leaders views within a +/-4.4% margin of error.

鈥淭his survey presents a clear picture of a defining moment for Division I college sports,鈥� said Len Elmore, Knight Commission co-chair. 鈥淣avigating the path forward will require difficult decisions about finances, governance and the core identity of college athletics.鈥�

Access full survey results, including an executive summary, charts and data for all questions at bit.ly/D1leaderspoll.

This 黑料不打烊 Poll/Knight Commission survey was conducted after the听House听settlement became effective on July 1, 2025. That settlement allows schools, for the first time, to provide NIL compensation and other new payments, commonly referenced as 鈥渞evenue-share,鈥� directly to college athletes.

The survey鈥檚 key findings include the following:

1. Division I leaders express a negative outlook about the future of college sports and have significant financial concerns

• A majority (62%)听believe Division I is headed in a听negative direction, with 80%听of university presidents and chancellors expressing this view.
• Nearly 8 in 10 leaders (79%)听are concerned about their athletics programs鈥� future reliance on institutional funds and student fees to balance budgets
• More than three in five campus leaders (62%) doubt that Division I can remain a single entity within the NCAA.

鈥淭he leaders share widespread agreement that the current framework of Division I faces an unprecedented crisis of stability and sustainability,鈥� said Knight Commission co-chair Pam Bernard.

2. Nearly unanimous support for maintaining academic mission and standards

Division I leaders overwhelmingly affirmed the importance of the educational component of college athletics, with strong support for athletes being enrolled full-time (98%) and graduating (99%), and teams having to meet academic standards for postseason competition (95%).

3. Overwhelming opposition to current athlete transfer rules and strong support for maintaining the current four-year eligibility rule

• More than 8 in 10 campus leaders (86%)听say the transfer portal is having a negative effect on Division I sports and leaders are similarly unified in opposing current rules (84%) that allow athletes to transfer as often as they choose with immediate eligibility at their new school.
• Nearly 8 in 10 (77%) believe it is important to limit college athletes to four full seasons of eligibility.

鈥淎s a pollster, when I see agreement consistently in the 70 to 90 percent range across high-stakes issues, I see a signal of shared urgency and clarity among Division I leaders that is notably rare in complex and evolving policy areas like college athletics,鈥� said Jason Husser, director of 黑料不打烊 Poll.

4. Leaders foresee a negative impact of听the House听settlement overall on 听Division I but views vary on the future impact on athletes鈥� experiences in specific sports.

• More than three-quarters (76%)听believe the settlement鈥檚 impact on Division I as a whole will be negative, a view held by听88%听of college presidents and chancellors.
• A majority听(60%)听believe the settlement will have a听positive听impact on the experience of FBS football athletes, with less positive impact for men鈥檚 basketball (48% positive) and women鈥檚 basketball (38% positive). Meantime, leaders expect negative impacts for athletes in all other men鈥檚 sports (80% negative) and women鈥檚 sports (78% negative).
• As a subgroup, athletics directors were more optimistic about the impact of the House settlement on FBS football athletes (75% positive), men鈥檚 basketball athletes (63% positive) and women鈥檚 basketball (50% positive).

5. Widespread support for collegiate Olympic sports and new funding mechanisms

• Nearly all Division I leaders (93%)听believe it is important for universities to offer non-revenue sports like gymnastics, swimming and track & field, and that these programs are vital to Team USA鈥檚 Olympic success (94%).
• Nearly three-quarters (73%) favor using federal funds to help finance collegiate Olympic sports and scholarships, and even more (82%) support the use of revenues from a federal tax on sports gambling operators to support them.

6. Gender equity concerns and future threats.

The survey exposed a fundamental challenge in applying Title IX to new athlete NIL or 鈥渞evenue-share鈥� payments from the institution:

• Nearly half (47%) of Division I leaders听say these new institutional payments should be 鈥渂ased on how much money an athlete鈥檚 sport generates or the athlete鈥檚 marketability,鈥� while 31%听say institutional payments 鈥渟hould be included in the total amount of institutional financial assistance (e.g., athletics scholarships) and distributed equitably to female and male athletes,鈥� and 22% are unsure. As a subgroup, athletics directors were much more decisive, with听78%听favoring the market-based approach.
• A majority of leaders听(55%)听predict that Division I female athletes will be worse off听under the new rules. This concern was especially strong among university presidents听(64%) and faculty athletics representatives (69%).

7. Significant support for federal legislation to regulate college sports

• Division I leaders overwhelmingly support national standards or laws to regulate athlete NIL compensation (86%), to prevent college athletes from being classified as employees (78%) and to allow national rules to supersede conflicting state laws (77%).
• Nearly 7 in 10 (69%)听support national laws that would allow limits on how much each institution can spend on specific sports or budgets.

Division I leaders also strongly support different competition structures for sports other than basketball to allow more regional scheduling. And a slight majority of both FBS and non-FBS leaders support creating a new governing entity for Power 4 football teams separate from the NCAA. A majority of FBS leaders (58%) also support having a 鈥渟ingle executive or commissioner to provide unified leadership for the sport, not just for its national championship, the College Football Playoff.鈥�

The survey follows a national public opinion survey on college sports conducted by the Knight Commission and 黑料不打烊 Poll in July 2025.

Survey Methodology

This survey was developed by the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics and the 黑料不打烊 Poll. It was fielded by the 黑料不打烊 Poll as a Qualtrics, web-based, self-administered survey between July 29 and August 22, 2025. Those invited via email to take the survey included representatives at 364 NCAA Division I colleges and universities. There were 376 respondents, including 61 presidents or chancellors, 94 athletics directors, 79 senior woman administrators and 142 faculty athletics representatives. The respondents included 51 individuals from Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) Power 4/autonomy conferences, 83 from the FBS Group of Six conferences and FBS Independents, 128 from the Football Championship Subdivision and 114 from Division I basketball centric (no football) schools. The overall margin of error for this poll is +/-4.4%, with larger margins of error for subgroups. Access the full report, charts, survey topline and methodology at: bit.ly/D1leaderspoll.

About

, founded by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation in 1989, is an independent group that leads transformational change to prioritize college athletes鈥� education, health, safety, and success. knightcommission.org

The 黑料不打烊 Poll was established in 2000 as a public policy research initiative. The 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts North Carolina and national surveys on important issues, sharing the results with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

Public opinion splits significantly on issues like compensation for college athletes, athletes鈥� potential status as employees, and who should govern the multi-billion-dollar enterprise of Division I athletics. Despite these differences, Americans overwhelmingly support maintaining academic standards for college athletes, and they agree that colleges should provide equitable opportunities to female athletes and opportunities for athletes in sports other than those tied to generating revenue (like football and basketball).

The survey by the 黑料不打烊 Poll and the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics was conducted July 7-11, 2025, a month after a landmark legal settlement that permits Division I athletics programs, for the first time, to share revenue with athletes and compensate them for the value of their names, images and likenesses (NIL).

The $2.8 billion antitrust settlement, approved June 6 by U.S. District Court Judge Claudia Wilken, ended several class action lawsuits filed against the NCAA and the five prominent athletic conferences that generate the most revenues.

鈥淭he results of this public opinion poll are a timely and invaluable resource for lawmakers and leaders in Division I athletics to consider as they shape policies and legislation over the next several months,鈥澨齭aid Len Elmore, co-chair of the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics. 鈥淚t is important to know that the public overwhelmingly supports keeping college sports connected to its academic mission, even with the historic shifts on other issues like college athlete compensation.鈥�

• No public consensus on college sports governance and the role of federal and state governments
  • Only about a third (35%) of Americans believe the NCAA should primarily be responsible for regulating college sports; just 6% of the public support the federal government assuming that role.
  • In keeping with doubts about a federal role, most Americans are either skeptical or unsure that Congress should enact legislation to regulate college sports.

• Overwhelming support for maintaining academic emphasis
  • 8 out of 10 Americans (81%) believe it is extremely or very important for college athletes to be enrolled as full-time students and graduate.
  • Nearly 75% of Americans support the current rule requiring teams to be on track to graduate at least half their athletes to remain eligible for postseason competition.

鈥淎mericans show lots of uncertainty about the seismic shifts in Division I sports 鈥� but they are certain about two things: educational mission matters and athletic participation opportunities should not be limited to only revenue-producing sports,鈥� said Knight Commission CEO Amy Privette Perko. 鈥淧rioritizing those goals has long been a cornerstone of the Knight Commission’s work, and it is encouraging to see a clear public sentiment on these issues.鈥�

• Americans show strong support for women鈥檚 and collegiate Olympic sports and openness to federal funding for collegiate Olympic sports
  • Nearly 40% of Americans believe that schools 鈥渉ave not gone far enough鈥� in providing female athletes with equitable opportunities and just 7% think schools 鈥渉ave gone too far.鈥�
  • Nearly 7 in 10 Americans said that athletic opportunities in sports not tied to generating revenue 鈥� generally referred to as collegiate Olympic sports 鈥� are important for universities to offer.
  • The survey also found widespread support for Team USA, with three in four Americans saying it is moderately to extremely important that Team USA is successful in the Olympics.
  • Nearly half of American adults favored using federal funds to help finance college sports programs to develop USA Olympic national team members and two-thirds of those interested in college sports supported that idea.
  • A slight majority of Americans (53%) also supported enacting a fee or federal tax on sports gambling operators to create a national fund to support collegiate Olympic sports.
  • Most Americans (81%) erroneously thought that the U.S. government provides funding for Team USA development programs (it does not).

鈥淚t is encouraging to see such broad public support for the importance of collegiate Olympic sports and the key role they play in achieving Team USA Olympic success,鈥� said Knight Commission member Beth Brooke. 鈥淏ut acknowledging the importance of these sports is only half the battle 鈥� now is the time for both Division I leaders and lawmakers to recognize the urgent need to continue investing in these sports at the collegiate level and to create new mechanisms to make sure that investment is robust.鈥�

• Mixed views on athletes鈥� employment status and seismic shifts taking place
  • Most Americans do not support classifying Division I athletes as employees of their schools, although support is higher among respondents who identified as 鈥渇ormer college athletes and their families.鈥� Even for revenue-producing sports (like football and basketball), 36% of Americans opposed classifying athletes as employees compared with 30% who supported employee classification. The American public is much more receptive to universities negotiating with athletes on pay, rights and responsibilities, with more than 40% of respondents supporting the idea.
  • When asked about the collective impact of recent changes in Division I, including the transfer portal, name, image, and likeness (NIL) compensation, and conference realignments, Americans were divided and uncertain in their assessments. Fully half of all Americans think these changes are neither positive or negative or were unsure about their impact.
  • By contrast, Americans had definite opinions about the funding sources for the new athlete compensation allowed from universities. They favored raising this money from private and corporate support and media contracts and there was little support for increasing student tuition and fees and dropping non-revenue sports.

“It is clear that many people are still trying to understand new rules on athletes鈥� compensation, transfers, conference realignments and other issues,鈥� said Jason Husser, director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll. 鈥淢any people who don鈥檛 follow college sports closely are still learning about the new environment and forming their opinions based on what they read and hear about these issues. That鈥檚 why we see much more definite views among college sports fans and more uncertainty among casual observers.鈥�

Other survey topics included questions on the benefits of college sports, limits on individual athlete compensation, views on the College Football Playoff and FBS football governance, college coach credentialing, athletes鈥� health and safety, and sports gambling.

Survey Methodology

The survey was developed by the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics and the 黑料不打烊 Poll. It was fielded by the international marketing and polling firm as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between July 7 and July 11, YouGov interviewed 1,671 U.S. adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 1,500 to produce the final dataset. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-2.87%.

About听the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletic

, founded by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation in 1989, is an independent group that leads transformational change to prioritize college athletes鈥� education, health, safety, and success. The Commission has a legacy of influencing NCAA policies that have helped propel record-high graduation rates of Division I athletes. The Commission鈥檚 ongoing efforts focus on governance, equity, and financial reforms, as well as providing education on the changing landscape of college sports.

About the 黑料不打烊 Poll

The 黑料不打烊 Poll was established in 2000 as a public policy research initiative. The 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts North Carolina and national surveys on important issues, sharing the results with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative, a program created by the .

鈥淚 just really fell in love,鈥� she recalled. 鈥淚t was the community, the culture, the energy 鈥� it all felt right.鈥� What she didn鈥檛 know yet was that her time at 黑料不打烊 would set her on a path she hadn鈥檛 even imagined, a career amplifying voices across the country through public opinion.

Marken started out undeclared for her major, feeling the pressure that many first-generation students face in finding a secure, practical career. She leaned toward business, hoping it would guarantee job stability, but a pivotal conversation with her advisor, Professor of History Charles Irons, changed everything.

When she visited Irons to declare her major in business, he asked her a simple but powerful question, 鈥淲hat do you love learning about?鈥� Marken recalls telling him about her love for polling after taking an introductory to public opinion polling class. In response, he told her that if you study what you love, the rest will fall into place. So, she pivoted and decided to declare a degree in Political Science instead.

Her interest in polling took shape into a passion after her internship with 黑料不打烊 Poll. She found herself doing real-world work on campus.

鈥淚t was such a gift,鈥� she said. 鈥淓specially as a student balancing financial strain, it helped me imagine a future career in polling that I wouldn鈥檛 have otherwise considered.鈥�

Her experiences at 黑料不打烊 鈥� from her internship and rigorous political science courses to her leadership in her sorority 鈥� gave her the confidence and tools to keep going. With the encouragement of her professors, Marken pursued graduate school in survey research at the University of Connecticut.

鈥淲hen I went on to U-Conn’s graduate school program, I felt incredibly prepared to be successful academically there, and I think so much of that was due to the rigor of the political science department at 黑料不打烊,鈥� said Marken.

From there, she worked at Westat before landing what had always felt like a dream role for her鈥� working at Gallup. She recalls feeling drawn to Gallup with their mission of helping people be heard. With such a diverse group of clients focused on so many distinct and pressing world problems, there were so many areas of impact she felt she could focus on.

Today, Marken is a leader in U.S. research at the renowned polling organization, where she oversees projects on some of the most pressing issues of our time 鈥� healthcare access, climate concerns and higher education. What drives her most is the power of giving people a voice.

鈥淭o provide people a voice and elevate lived experience is a real privilege in public opinion polling,鈥� explained Marken, 鈥淩eporting on an unexpected finding is the most rewarding part of my work, while the most challenging part is staying ahead of research trends. When I started at Gallup in 2012, most people were still using telephone surveys. Now, it’s very rare that we would use a telephone survey to conduct a public opinion poll. It’s an exciting challenge keeping up with technology and making sure that we’re evolving our methodology so that we can still represent most Americans in the end.鈥�

Marken credits 黑料不打烊, and especially faculty members like Professor of Political Science and Public Policy Laura Roselle, former 黑料不打烊 Professor Hunter Bacot, and Irons, for shaping both her career and her purpose.

鈥淭hey took a vested interest in me, and they didn鈥檛 have to. If not for those three people, I very much doubt I鈥檇 be at Gallup today,鈥� she says.

She recalls how Roselle, taught her how to write with clarity and impact鈥� something that was essential for her success in graduate school. Bacot first introduced her to the polling center and encouraged her to explore a career in public opinion research, and it was Irons who challenged her to pursue her passions.

鈥淚 credit any success I鈥檝e had since graduation to the incredible advisors and mentors I had at 黑料不打烊,鈥� Marken said.

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 American adults April 10-17, 2025, found that 43% of Americans believe prices will be much higher due to new tariffs, with another 37% expecting somewhat higher prices 鈥� meaning a total of 80% of Americans anticipate increased costs from the administration’s trade policies.

Tariff Concerns Split Along Party Lines

The poll reveals 65% of Americans are at least somewhat concerned that higher tariffs will negatively affect their family’s financial situation, with Democrats (90%) expressing dramatically higher concern than Republicans (41%). Other groups that expressed the highest concerns about the impact of tariffs on their family鈥檚 finances were Black Americans (76%), those with four-year college degrees (73%) and those with income above $100,000 (70%).

Is the Pain Worth the Gain?

In a Rose Garden speech, saying he was imposing reciprocal import tariffs to spur industry to return production to the United States and 鈥渕ake America wealthy again.鈥� Asked for their opinions shortly after that announcement, 38% of Americans said they are willing to accept higher prices now with the hope of better economic outcomes in the future, while 43% rejected that trade-off. The partisan divide is striking: 71% of Republicans said they are willing to accept higher prices in the near-term compared with just 13% of Democrats and 25% of Independents.

White Americans were more willing to accept short-term higher prices, with 44% expecting the long-term result will be good for the economy. Half as many Black Americans agreed with that economic strategy, with only 22% saying they are willing to accept higher prices now, compared with 66% who are not willing to accept higher prices.

鈥淎 majority of Republicans in the United States continue to back President Trump鈥檚 economic policies, expressing willingness to accept higher prices for their perceived long run benefits of tariffs while also showing limited worry of recession,鈥� said Jason Husser, director of the 黑料不打烊 Poll. 鈥淐ontinued support among Republican voters certainly bolsters听the President鈥檚 backing within his party in Congress.鈥�

Outlook for U.S. Production with Higher Tariffs

While overall outlooks are pessimistic, a plurality of Americans said the impact of tariffs is likely to be positive for U.S. production, with 52% saying production of goods in this country will grow and the nation will become less reliant on foreign imports. In line with that expectation, 50% said producers will shift manufacturing to the United States and 49% said there will be more job opportunities.

Republicans had much higher expectations for those positive outcomes than Democrats and Independents, with 84% of Republicans expecting production of U.S. goods to grow, compared with only 29% of Democrats and 39% of Independents.

Confidence in the U.S. Economy is Weak

Confidence in the U.S. economy is weak, with 45% saying they are less confident in the economy since Trump took office, 32% feeling more confident, and 15% saying their level of confidence is unchanged.

This confidence gap follows strict partisan lines with 65% of Republicans reporting increased economic confidence compared with just 9% of Democrats and 17% of Independents. Conversely, 79% of Democrats report decreased confidence versus only 12% of Republicans.

Demographic breakdowns reveal additional patterns:

• Men (37%) are more confident than women (28%)
• Americans aged 45 and older are more confident (40%) than those aged 18-44 (25%)
• White Americans (39%) are more confident than Black Americans (8%)

Job security and future employment concerns

The poll reveals moderate concerns about immediate job security, with 28% very or somewhat concerned about keeping their job over the next few years and 55% saying they are only slightly concerned or not at all concerned. However, the following percentages of poll respondents said they are very or somewhat concerned that these factors could threaten their employment over the next few years:

• Economic recession: 50%
• Federal and state government policy changes: 44%
• Changes brought about by artificial intelligence: 40%
• Rising job discrimination against certain classes of people: 34%
• Industry changes: 33%
• Employer going out of business or making major cutbacks: 30%
• Demand for skills: 27%

鈥淚ndependents are considerably more likely than Republicans to express anxiety in several indicators of employment security in our survey 鈥� from concerns about industry changes to employer cutbacks, to changes in federal policies,鈥� Husser said. 鈥淭hese heightened concerns of independents are an early signal that the midterm Congressional elections, and the President鈥檚 subsequent policy agenda, will be heavily influenced by what happens next in terms of the real-world impact of the economic and trade policies since Inauguration Day.鈥�

Social Security Concerns

Across all groups, there is agreement that major changes in the Social Security system are coming in the next several years, including adjustments in the level of benefits and qualification rules. Overall, 66% of Americans said those changes are likely, including 83% of Democrats, 63% of Independents and 54% of Republicans.

There are also significant concerns that the operations of Social Security in the months ahead may impact Americans鈥� ability to receive and manage benefits. Overall, 56% of Americans said they are at least somewhat concerned about Social Security operations in coming months, including 77% of Democrats, 61% of those with incomes less than $50,000 and 60% of those aged 45 and older.

Impact on Summer Vacation Plans

One-third of Americans (33%) report planning to spend less and stay close to home for summer vacation due to the economic climate, while 47% anticipate little to no impact on their vacation plans. Only 3% plan to spend more and take a nice vacation.

The vacation spending gap shows clear partisan influence with 49% of Democrats planning to reduce vacation spending compared with 18% of Republicans.

Poll Methodology

Access the poll topline and methodology at: www.elon.edu/elonpoll. The survey was developed by the 黑料不打烊 Poll and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between April 10 and April 17, YouGov interviewed 1,149 U.S. adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset.

Throughout this report, the analysis of partisan differences compares the views of Republicans plus those who lean Republican in their voting preference with Democrats plus those who lean Democratic. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-3.58%.

About the 黑料不打烊 Poll

Established in 2000, the 黑料不打烊 Poll conducts national and North Carolina surveys on issues of importance to voters and residents. Information from these polls is shared with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens鈥� opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by 黑料不打烊 and operates as the neutral, non-biased information resource.

The 黑料不打烊 Poll is a charter member of the听Transparency Initiative, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in 2014 to educate polling firms on ways to better share how they collect and interpret their information. The 黑料不打烊 Poll鈥檚 voluntary participation in this initiative signifies a willingness to clearly state in its reports how questions were asked, in what order, who funded the poll and then conducted it, and a definition of the population under study, among other details.