黑料不打烊

Expect ‘game layers’ to expand,聽with positive and negative impacts. Survey聽reveals聽hopes and fears

Technology stakeholders generally believe the use of game mechanics, feedback loops, and rewards will become more embedded in daily life by 2020, but they are split about how widely the trend will extend. Some say the move to implement more game elements in networked communications will be mostly positive, aiding education, health, business, and training. You may be “playing” embedded gamelike elements whether you know it or not, and some experts warn it can take the form of invisible, insidious behavioral manipulation.

In a new Pew Internet/黑料不打烊 survey of more than 1,000 Internet experts, researchers, observers, and users, about half of the respondents expressed confidence that by 2020 the interactive engagement people undertake online each day will incorporate more game elements.

A modest majority of the people surveyed鈥�53%鈥攕aid the use of game mechanics, feedback loops, and rewards to spur interaction and boost engagement, loyalty, fun, and/or learning will gain ground between now and 2020. A number of survey participants qualified this by saying the adoption of gamification will continue to have some limits and 42% said 鈥済amification鈥� generally will not expand in numbers of people influenced except in specific realms.

One anonymous survey respondent spoke for many, writing, 鈥淚 expect more use of gaming-inspired ideas where that makes sense, but I don鈥檛 expect it to become a pervasive feature of many or most everyday activities for people using communications networks.鈥�

Overall the top tech experts participating in this survey generally believe game elements in some form will continue to play a role of gathering importance in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks. 鈥淭he development of 鈥榮erious games鈥� applied productively to a wide scope of human activities will accelerate simply because playing is more fun than working,鈥� observed聽Mike Liebhold, senior researcher and distinguished fellow at The Institute for the Future.

As Leibhold noted, gamification is not all just about status, community building and marketing. Gamelike approaches to education and problem-solving are rolling out in new ways. A prominent example took place in 2011, when researchers at the University of Washington made headlines with their game聽Foldit聽鈥� it generated a crowd-sourced find of the secret behind a key protein that may help cure HIV. The game drew 46,000 participants whose gameplay took just 10 days to solve a problem scientists had been working on for 15 years.

鈥淚n addition to their uses for crowd-sourcing solutions, game-style approaches are expected to continue to make inroads in training, personal health, business and education,鈥� said聽Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center鈥檚 Internet & American Life Project.

鈥淭he experts point out that game mechanics offer advantages in encouraging specific behavior and generating measurable feedback.鈥�

Some background on gamification trends today:聽Technology consultancy Gartner has projected 50% of corporate innovation will be 鈥済amified鈥� by 2015. Another consulting firm, Deloitte, cited gamification as one of its Top 10 Technology Trends for 2012. Elements of game mechanics are being employed nowadays in training, marketing, education, and wellness initiatives.

However, some of the experts in this Future of the Internet survey warned, the use of game mechanics may be a threat in some regards.

鈥淪ome experts said people can be manipulated by game elements because they can be used as an instrument of propaganda,鈥� said聽Janna Anderson, director of 黑料不打烊鈥檚 Imagining the Internet Center and a co-author of the study. 鈥淪ome also said people are often not aware of corporations鈥� and governments鈥� uses of gamification data and patterns to gain intelligence, and some said games pander to people鈥檚 already overmet desire to be entertained, to the detriment of other activities.鈥�

This is the fourth report generated out of the results of a Web-based survey fielded in fall 2011. It gathered opinions on eight Internet issues from a select group of experts and the highly engaged Internet public.

(Methodology section is at bottom of page.)

The major findings of the report follow below, on this page.

Experts share聽2020 expectations for gamification

OVERVIEW:聽The word 鈥済amification鈥� has emerged in recent years as a way to describe interactive online design that plays on people鈥檚 competitive instincts and often incorporates the use of rewards to drive action鈥攖hese include virtual rewards such as points, payments, badges, discounts, and 鈥渇ree鈥� gifts; and status indicators such as friend counts, retweets, leader boards, achievement data, progress bars, and the ability to 鈥渓evel up.鈥�

While some people dismiss gamification as a fad, neuroscientists are discovering more and more about the ways in which humans react to such interactive design elements. They say such elements can cause feel-good chemical reactions, alter human responses to stimuli鈥攊ncreasing reaction times, for instance鈥攁nd in certain situations can improve learning, participation, and motivation.

Technology consultancy Gartner has projected 50% of corporate innovation will be 鈥済amified鈥� by 2015. Another consulting firm, Deloitte, cited gamification as one of its Top 10 Technology Trends for 2012, predicting: 鈥淪erious gaming simulations and game mechanics such as leaderboards, achievements, and skill-based learning are becoming embedded in day-to-day business processes, driving adoption, performance, and engagement.鈥�

Elements of game mechanics are being employed nowadays in training, marketing, education, and wellness initiatives.

Gameplay has long been a popular pursuit, from the simplest moves of聽Go, first played in China 3,000 years ago, to the massively multiplayer online games of today. Digital games generated $25 billion in sales in 2010, and their popularity is considered to be a driver of the adoption of elements of gamification in many Internet pursuits.

Another primary driver is the rapid uptake of social networks, now used by 70% of American Internet users, where reward and status elements are embedded in implicit and explicit forms in people鈥檚 interactions in their engagement in online communities.

Game elements and competition are interspersed throughout the platforms that have made social networks like Facebook and Twitter popular.

Marketers, businesses, and other organizations have come to depend upon the competitive metrics they derive from analysis and implementation of social networks to measure and drive consumer behavior.

Gamification is not, however, just about status, community building, and marketing. Game-like approaches to education and problem-solving are rolling out in new ways. To cite one prominent example, when researchers at the University of Washington made headlines in 2011 with their game聽Foldit. It generated a crowd-sourced discovery of the mystery of how a key protein may help cure HIV. The game drew 46,000 participants whose gameplay took just 10 days to solve a problem scientists had been working on for 15 years. Non-digital and digital real-world games based on scenarios and problem-solving have been around for a while, but it wasn鈥檛 until recent years that the label 鈥渟erious game鈥� was applied to this type of activity.

Some scholars and educators, too, have become interested in harnessing the potential of gaming mechanics and sensibilities as tools for advancing learning. A 鈥渟erious gaming鈥� movement has arisen to apply gaming techniques to such realms as military and corporate and first-responder training programs, civilization and environmental ecology simulations, K-12 educational programs on subjects like math and history and the sciences, news events and public policy campaigns, problem-solving strategies in the natural sciences, and even physical exercise programs.

Where will we be by 2020?

Will the use of gamification, game mechanics, feedback loops, and rewards to spur interaction and boost engagement, buy-in, loyalty, fun, and/or learning continue to gain ground and be implemented in many new ways in people鈥檚 digital lives between now and 2020? Or will it not really advance much beyond where it is today by then?

A highly engaged, diverse set of respondents were asked by the Pew Research Center鈥檚 Internet & American Life Project and 黑料不打烊鈥檚 Imagining the Internet Center to answer this question in an online, opt-in survey. Some 1,021 technology stakeholders and critics responded in a more or less split verdict. Some 53% said yes that gamification will be widespread, but a number of them qualified this by saying the evolving adoption of gamification will continue to have some limits. Some 42% chose a more modest scenario that predicted gamification will not evolve to be a larger trend except in specific realms, but many of them did say it will have its important niches.

Respondents to the 黑料不打烊-Pew Internet survey were 聽asked to, 鈥淓xplain your choice and share your view of gamification and implications for the future. What new approaches to information sharing do you anticipate will be finding their footing by 2020? What are the positives, negatives, and shades of grey in the likely future you anticipate?鈥� This yielded an outpouring of opinion about the likely future.

Following is a sampling of respondents’ varied predictions and arguments gleaned as a briefing from the 1,000 responses, organized under topic headings based on analysis. A slight majority of survey respondents preferred to remain anonymous; all responses are personal and do not represent the positions of survey participants’ employers.

Play beats work, so, yes! it can be an advantage

One of the most affirming arguments came from an anonymous survey respondent:

鈥⒙犫�淕aming functionality will continue to grow and be used in more and more facets of our lives. People will receive training on the job, be exposed through education and development programs, have the ability to learn about areas that are important to them using this technology and social strategy. It will allow people to understand complex topics faster and with more nuances, and make the learning process more anticipated and less to be feared or avoided. New ideas will spread faster as the ability to educate more people becomes easier and quicker.鈥�

Others made the case this way:
鈥� 鈥淭he development of 鈥榮erious games鈥� applied productively to a wide scope of human activities will accelerate simply because playing is more fun than working.鈥� 鈥�聽Mike Liebhold, senior researcher and distinguished fellow at The Institute for the Future

鈥� 鈥淧laybor (play plus labor) and weisure (work plus leisure) will be ubiquitous.鈥� 鈥�聽P.J. Rey, managing editor of the Cyborgology blog

鈥� 鈥淕amification may be the most important social and commercial development of the next fifty years. Commercially, we may be seeing the end of the marketing orientation, possibly marking the beginning of the 鈥榞ame orientation.鈥� This will touch all aspects of the organization as it is applied to sales, production, management, and other areas of commercial practice. Socially, gamified technology will evolve and humanize many of the artificial interactions we currently endure鈥攃heck-in鈥檚, like鈥檚, shares, and their kin will all 鈥榡ust work鈥� and drive new waves of innovation in our technology.鈥� 鈥撀�Ross Rader, general manager at Hover and board member of the Canadian Internet Registration Authority

鈥� 鈥淧eople will increasingly expect game elements in a wide range of activities. Game-development tools will enable most people to gamify many aspects of life and work, in digital, physical, and blended environments.鈥� 鈥撀�Cathy Cavanaugh, associate professor of educational technology, University of Florida

鈥� 鈥淕ame mechanics and leveling up have been used in the military, the orchestra, schools, and in general professions since the beginning of human civilization鈥�. The idea of game mechanics will simply blend into the idea of experience design or motivation design and marketing, making it easier for users to stick with a new experience.鈥� 鈥撀�Amber Case, sociologist and popular speaker, and CEO of Geoloqi

鈥� 鈥淎s more and more 鈥榠ntelligence鈥� is injected into a 鈥榞amed鈥� response, it gains more and more ability to impact whatever it is applied to鈥�With the sophistication that can be inserted into interactive responses, game-like approaches will be applied across an increasingly wide sphere of human endeavors.鈥澛犫�� Charles Perrottet, partner at the Futures Strategy Group

鈥� 鈥淢ovements like the Quantified Self will make everything we do into our own game of self-improvement, learning, and real-time advances uniquely crafted to how we learn and what we want to learn or become proficient at. People鈥檚 ability to advance in any field will be self-controlled, automatically recorded, and unique skill sets will emerge as needed.鈥� 鈥撀�Alan Bachers, director of the Neurofeedback Foundation

鈥� 鈥淭he US military has been one of the largest developers and users of videogaming and simulation for training. Companies have developed more than just flight simulators for learning. The Disney鈥檚, EAS鈥檚, and others are, or will be, seeing more commercial opportunity to create better products for multiple subjects at multiple grade levels. To me, it is just a matter of time before public schools purchase and partner to use these tools, or get replaced in a vouchered world brought about by these companies wanting into the market and being big enough to counteract the political power of school unions and the boards they control.鈥� 鈥撀�Ed Lyell, professor at Adams State College

Games can be compelling, and that can easily lead to behavioral manipulation

鈥� 鈥淚t鈥檚 a modern-day form of manipulation. And like all cognitive manipulation, it can help people and it can hurt people. And we will see both.鈥濃�撀�danah boyd, researcher, Microsoft and Harvard鈥檚 Berkman Center

鈥� 鈥淕ame mechanics will indeed be part of the lingua franca, but it will be seen as what it is鈥攁nother tool of commerce trying a little too hard to wring personalized interactions out of mass behavior.鈥� 鈥�聽Mack Reed, principal at Factoid Labs

鈥� 鈥淐ompanies should take responsibility for the tremendous power they wield in society. I fear they won鈥檛, but I hope they do. Then of course, you can also say I hope consumers鈥攑eople experiencing gamification on the ground鈥攁re also aware (as best they can be) of the games they are engaging with, what are their purposes, who developed them, why, and so on. We鈥檝e all got to be very critical when fun can mask trouble.鈥� 鈥�聽David Kirschner, research assistant at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

鈥� 鈥淚鈥檓 all for feedback loops in our complex world. Emergence is how everything works. But for some reason, I鈥檓 resisting their explicit disruptive role in education and health. There are too many entrenched reasons (some of them good reasons) not to run things this way. If everything was a game, no one would have a reason to invent; any metric corrupts, as people shape their behavior to ensure that they come out on top. There have to be other routes to excellence in work, health, and education; there have to be ways to explore, invent, create, and avoid鈥攊t can鈥檛 be that we鈥檒l be adding up points for every salient element of our lives鈥�. Excuse me, now, while I check whether I鈥檝e been mentioned on Twitter.鈥� 鈥撀�Susan Crawford, founder of OneWebDay and former Obama White House technology policy expert

The real energy in social innovation will come in software that privileges cooperation

鈥� 鈥淕amification has little use in cooperation, and that is the area of social software that is least realized at this time, and which I predict will be the highest-growth area in the future.鈥� 鈥撀�Stowe Boyd, consultant and author

The infatuation with gamification is today’s fad and it will fade

鈥⒙犫�淔or all of the reasons that critics of game theory have identified over the years regarding its inability to capture the full range of human motivations, perceptions, cognitions, and practices, I believe there will be efforts to gamify much of what we do, but that much of that will just come and go as fads.鈥� 鈥� Sandra Braman, professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and an expert on information policy.

The term ‘gamification’ itself could use an upgrade

鈥� 鈥淏y 2020, anyone who ever used the term 鈥榞amification鈥� will be embarrassed to admit it.鈥� 鈥撀�Alex Halavais, associate professor, Quinnipiac University

鈥� 鈥淟ike 鈥榃eb 2.0鈥�, the term 鈥榞amification鈥� will fade away as the enormity of its success sweeps across the globe.鈥� 鈥撀�Bryan Alexander, senior fellow at the National Institute for Technology in Liberal Education

鈥� 鈥淕amification is a horrible made-up word. Just say games. Just say gaming interfaces. Just say game-design thinking.鈥� 鈥�聽Vicki Suter, director of the California Virtual Campus

The real energy in social innovation will come in software that privileges cooperation

鈥⒙犫�淕amification has little use in cooperation, and that is the area of social software that is least realized at this time, and which I predict will be the highest-growth area in the future.鈥� 鈥撀�Stowe Boyd, consultant and author

Further points made by survey respondents

鈥� While it has some drawbacks, gamification offers advantages in encouraging behaviors and generating measureable feedback.

鈥� Game-style engagement can bring an element of enjoyment to otherwise dull or challenging tasks, thus it will become a vital aspect of training, personal health, business, and education.

鈥� People are often not aware of corporations鈥� and governments鈥� surreptitious use of gamification data and patterns to gain intelligence.

鈥� Game-like approaches are generally a pandering to people鈥檚 already overmet desire to be entertained.

鈥� Some people could be 鈥渓ost鈥� to game-style approaches, causing an overall loss in productivity and other negative outcomes.

鈥� It is not wise to make everything into a competition or to force people into a situation in which they are expected to have to collect points for every human move.

Barry Chudakov, principal at Metalife Consulting and a visiting research fellow in the McLuhan Program in Culture and Technology at the University of Toronto, shared a comprehensive view: 鈥淧lay, it seems, may not only be an end in itself, it may be a better way to view and understand the world. The brilliant game designer and thinker Jane McGonigal has been saying for a few years, 鈥楻eality is broken. Why aren鈥檛 game designers trying to fix it?鈥� Recently gamers deciphered the structure of an enzyme of an AIDS-like virus that had thwarted scientists for a decade. We will soon realize that games generate alternative realities. Because we view them as fictional worlds that are made-up, invented to entertain, we miss their astonishing utility. By 2020 we will see that these games and virtual worlds provide alternative ways of seeing and thinking, which is the essence of innovation. Games are like the apple falling in front of Newton鈥檚 eyes. Seeing the apple fall, Newton understood something else, namely gravity. Our view of gaming may be a legacy of the live-to-work ethos of the Industrial Revolution; this view may keep us from seeing the powerful uses of gaming. By 2020 we will realize that gaming鈥檚 ready-made (albeit carefully crafted) metalife is one of the best ways ever devised to see, understand, and improve upon reality.鈥�

Another comprehensive insight came from futurist聽John Smart, founder of the Acceleration Studies Foundation.

鈥淏y 2020, gamification will have made more advances in entertainment and more inroads in education and mass consumption,鈥� he predicted, 鈥渂ut it will remain niche even for most retail businesses, as well as for health, work, self-help, personal productivity, self quantification, and other domains. People want to be increasingly entertained, and聽The Entertainment Economyand聽The Experience Economy聽are two good books describing how the best businesses will continue to drive us in that direction. But we simply don鈥檛 have the artificial intelligence necessary to build really good versions of this yet, and educational software remains pitifully poor at creating games that improve, rather than distract from learning. By 2030, once we have a real valuecosm, and our artificial intelligence agents (our cyber twins) have good models of the values, history, and learning goals of their biological twins (us), we鈥檒l have an environment where gamification could move significantly beyond entertainment. Until then, notwithstanding great visionary works like Jane McGonigal鈥檚聽Reality is Broken, don鈥檛 expect gamification to move us much beyond increasingly better entertainment games, and more serious games titles. Serious games will continue to remain mostly in the long tail rather than the fat head of the game market until serious artificial intelligence emerges.鈥�

The fuller analysis of survey data on gamification

There was a split verdict among experts about the scope and power of the gamification trend. Some 53% of the respondents to this survey said the use of game mechanics, feedback loops, and rewards to spur interaction and boost engagement, loyalty, fun, and/or learning will continue to gain ground between now and 2020.

A number of survey participants qualified this by saying the adoption of gamification will continue to have some limits, and 42% said it generally the trend will not advance except in specific realms. One anonymous survey respondent spoke for many, writing, 鈥淚 expect more use of gaming-inspired ideas where that makes sense, but I don鈥檛 expect it to become a pervasive feature of many or most everyday activities for people using communications networks.鈥�

Overall, a modest majority of the top tech experts participating in this survey believe game elements in some form will continue to play a role of gathering importance in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks.

鈥淭he development of 鈥榮erious games鈥� applied productively to a wide scope of human activities will accelerate simply because playing is more fun than working,鈥� observed聽Mike Liebhold, senior researcher and distinguished fellow at The Institute for the Future.

Survey respondents framed their conception of 鈥済amification鈥� in highly varied ways, ranging鈥攊n game-name terms鈥攆rom massively multiplayer online games such as聽Star Wars: The Old Republic聽to聽World of Warcraft聽(a 鈥渧irtual world鈥�) to Farmville (social networks-based game) to聽Angry Birds聽(popular smartphone app) to聽Foldit, a game that researchers used to crowdsource a scientific solution to an AIDS question, to training simulations, to the 鈥減oints鈥� (sometimes only in terms of social currency) one gathers for action in social interactions online, including having the most Twitter or Facebook connections or mentions.

Some people said it鈥檚 鈥渢oo soon鈥� for highly interactive elements to enhance effectively online interactions for most people while others said we鈥檙e already there and we have been for a while.

One anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淕amification is the same thing as an 鈥榠ncentive plan鈥� which was well documented (but not invented) by Mark Twain in聽Tom Sawyer. Our only innovation is to use technology to loosely affiliate more and more gaming metrics, tools, and interfaces with our day-to-day activities while simultaneously allowing us to review our progress and compete with our friends in just about everything鈥� I win.鈥� Another wrote, 鈥淲e are already well on our way to a fully engaged gamification world. Our buying patterns, our health care, our communications, and our recreating and entertainment all have built-in gamification already鈥攚hether people recognize it or not! As the sophistication of the approach, and the improved access emerges, we鈥檒l all be reaching for the next level and the most points.鈥�

The people who expressed the most positive feelings about the likely use of game-like approaches in future interactivity see it as a design approach that will facilitate life experiences鈥攐ne that is purposefully created not to feel like a game. For instance,聽Laura Lee Dooley, online engagement architect and strategist for the World Resources Institute, wrote: 鈥淕amification will be a seamless function of our daily life鈥攊n other words, we won鈥檛 notice it as such. Perhaps the SAT/GRE and other tests will be changed from a paper-based tool to an online resource. To help doctors with diagnosing illness, users will be able to answer a series of questions about symptoms online. This will be mashed up with their digital medical records so doctors can be more effective in their treatments.鈥�

After being asked to choose one of the two 2020 scenarios presented in this survey question, respondents were also asked, 鈥淓xplain your choice and share your view of gamification and implications for the future. What new approaches to information sharing do you anticipate will be finding their footing by 2020? What are the positives, negatives, and shades of grey in the likely future you anticipate?鈥�

Following is a selection from the hundreds of written responses survey participants shared when answering this question. The selected statements are grouped under headings that indicate the major themes emerging from these responses. The headings reflect the varied, conflicting and wide range of opinions found in respondents鈥� replies.

Those who see gamification advancing note that fun is compelling; some
project a merger of play + labor (playbor), work + leisure (weisure)

Feedback loops, fun, and functionality are a few of the primary reasons many survey respondents said they expect gaming to be woven more into everyday Internet interaction even more by 2020.聽One anonymous respondent noted, 鈥淲e need to think of gaming as part entertainment, part learning, part training. In this context, gaming will only continue to expand. It already is much more widely used than is commonly acknowledged. It may not enter everyone鈥檚 lives in the form of entertainment but they will almost certainly encounter it in education and in training programs.鈥�

鈥淕amification is already happening on a daily basis and is being utilized more and more on the ground, such as in the nonprofit arena. In order to attract more attention to certain issues, to educate kids (and adults), and to keep things interesting, this concept will become more important throughout the years, particularly as mobile technology plays an increasing role in our day-to-day lives.”

鈥淟earning and working will be a game,鈥� said聽Marcel Bullinga, a futurist and author of聽Welcome to the Future Cloud. 鈥淪chools and offices, hospitals and factories, and even your own home鈥攖hey will all become gaming zones.鈥�

Christian Huitema, distinguished engineer at Microsoft, commented, 鈥淔orms of gamification will definitely appear in many common tasks. Some of the practices under gamification may sound like gimmicks, but gamification is part of a trend towards making user interfaces interesting and engaging.鈥�

鈥淲ho鈥檚 going to argue against making things more fun?鈥� asked聽David Weinberger, senior researcher at Harvard University鈥檚 Berkman Center for Internet & Society.

P.J. Rey, managing editor of the Cyborgology blog and a lead organizer of the Theorizing the Web conferences, invoked some new terminology that Internet sociologists have used to describe the evolving scene 鈥� 鈥減laybor鈥� and 鈥渨eisure.鈥澛犫�淕amification is not appropriate for all applications and may even limit the range of possibilities or potential for customization of certain platforms,鈥� he wrote. 鈥淣evertheless, the interfaces of many of the tools we use will be made more effective through gamification. Playbor (play plus labor) and weisure (work plus leisure) will be ubiquitous.鈥�

Sabeen Ahmad, new media director at Brodie Collins Consulting, noted that online information designers are already implementing game elements, writing: 鈥淕amification is already happening on a daily basis and is being utilized more and more on the ground, such as in the nonprofit arena. In order to attract more attention to certain issues, to educate kids (and adults), and to keep things interesting, this concept will become more important throughout the years, particularly as mobile technology plays an increasing role in our day-to-day lives.鈥澛�Cathy Cavanaugh, an associate professor of educational technology at the University of Florida, commented, 鈥淎s games become ubiquitous, people will increasingly expect game elements in a wide range of activities. Game-development tools will enable most people to gamify many aspects of life and work, in digital, physical, and blended environments.鈥�

Caroline Haythornthwaite, director and professor at the School of Library, Archival, and Information Studies of the University of British Columbia, argued: 鈥淭he logic of games is entering many areas of endeavor and will continue to do so. Game strategies look ready to take great effect in crowdsourced arenas where no authority or reward system (e.g., grades) are immediately present. As Eric Raymond noted [in his work聽The Cathedral and the Bazaar] about open-source development, engagement is the mechanism that keeps people coming back and it leads to success.鈥�

“The logic of games is entering many areas of endeavor and will continue to do so. Game strategies look ready to take great effect in crowdsourced arenas where no authority or reward system (e.g., grades) are immediately present. As Eric Raymond noted [in his work聽The Cathedral and the Bazaar] about open-source development, engagement is the mechanism that keeps people coming back and it leads to success.”聽

Ross Rader, general manager at Hover and a board member of the Canadian Internet Registration Authority, said elements of game mechanics are transforming marketing and other aspects of business. 鈥淕amification may be the most important social and commercial development of the next fifty years,鈥� he said.聽鈥淐ommercially, we may be seeing the end of the marketing orientation, possibly marking the beginning of the 鈥榞ame orientation.鈥� This will touch all aspects of the organization as it is applied to sales, production, management, and other areas of commercial practice. Socially, gamified technology will evolve and humanize many of the artificial interactions we currently endure鈥攃heck-in鈥檚, like鈥檚, shares, and their kin will all 鈥榡ust work鈥� and drive new waves of innovation in our technology.鈥�

Jeffrey Alexander, senior science and technology policy analyst at the Center for Science, Technology & Economic Development at SRI International, said, 鈥淭he introduction of games in 鈥榠nvisible鈥� means (such as those developed by researchers like Luis von Ahn) will make gamification a relatively unnoticed but pervasive influence on how we interact with online resources.鈥�

Game elements enhance and grow social networks, increase participation, speed up self-organized learning

Glenn Omura, an associate professor of marketing at Michigan State University, said game elements can create valuable connections. 鈥淒igital technology is facilitating a traditional process by speeding the cycling of contacts and information and in a more targeted way.鈥�

John Jackson, a leader in Police Futurists International and officer with the Houston Police Department, agreed. 鈥淕amification will become ubiquitous,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t provides a means to gain feedback in distributed communities of interest. It is present in forums where contributors acquire reputation in the form of points awarded for the quantity and quality of contributions. Gamification will become a means of reducing management in favor of self-organization.鈥�

“Game-like elements have become routine parts of our online interactions: collecting points and badges, competing on leader boards, answering quizzes. While these kinds of tactics often feel a bit tedious or predictable, they are in widespread use because they help solve one of the key dilemmas in social media and online communities: how to generate participation.”

Alexandra Samuel, director of the Social + Interactive Media Centre at Emily Carr University of Art + Design said game-style approaches are being leveraged to benefit positive participation in online communities. 鈥淭he permeation of game mechanics into everyday life and work will be a byproduct of social media,鈥� she explained. 鈥淎lready, game-like elements have become routine parts of our online interactions: collecting points and badges, competing on leader boards, answering quizzes. While these kinds of tactics often feel a bit tedious or predictable, they are in widespread use because they help solve one of the key dilemmas in social media and online communities: how to generate participation. As that participatory medium takes over more and more of our working life and culture鈥攂oth directly, by seeing us spend more or our time on social websites and using social web apps at work, and indirectly, by seeing participatory norms embodied into our offline interactions鈥攚e will come to rely on game-like techniques for generating participation in virtually any group interaction, and many of our private interactions.鈥�

Marjory S. Blumenthal, associate provost at Georgetown University, reasoned: 鈥淕ames will continue to have impacts and motivate novel applications. They may be at least as important in research and in decision-support鈥攖hey will provide accessible forms of modeling and simulation of new or potential situations. But the way the scenario is worded suggests a risk of faddism; games are likely to go only so far.鈥�

“Games are a codified form of the inherent playfulness of humanity鈥攊t makes us human to play, and we learn to be human through play. Thus gamification naturally fits with the human condition.”

Charles Perrottet, a partner at the Futures Strategy Group, responded, 鈥淕aming is really just a form of interaction. As more and more 鈥榠ntelligence鈥� is injected into a 鈥榞amed鈥� response, it gains more and more ability to impact whatever it is applied to. Games have always opened learning possibilities. With the sophistication that can be inserted into interactive responses, game-like approaches will be applied across an increasingly wide sphere of human endeavors.鈥�

Jeniece Lusk, assistant research director with a PhD in applied sociology at an Atlanta, Georgia, information technology company, described her recent experience with a simulation: 鈥淚 did a major surgery last week on my Nintendo DS! Seriously, I would love to see this type of virtual simulation expand beyond the military and drivers鈥� ed! I anticipate a greater adoption of these products if we adopt the 鈥榠f you can鈥檛 beat 鈥榚m, join 鈥榚m attitude鈥� and put this technology to good use.鈥�

Young people’s interests in gaming will
drive the trend to gamifying other aspects of life

A number of survey participants said young people now and in the future enjoy digital, social gaming, so applying game mechanics across all elements of their lives fits their communication orientation. 鈥淲e have an ever-increasing number of individuals (mostly younger than 35 years old) who have grown up with videogames and have been conditioned to pursue online rewards,鈥� said聽Marcia Richards Suelzer, senior writer and analyst at Wolters Kluwer, echoing the sentiments of many survey participants. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no doubt that companies will find ways to cash in on these factors.鈥�

Game mechanics are double-edged: Fun, useful, and positive, but also manipulative and even insidious

A number of survey participants see vivid positive/negative potential. 鈥淧eople are generally a game-playing species who have always 鈥榞amified鈥� their activities,鈥� said聽Richard Holeton, author of Cyberspace: Identity, Community, and Knowledge in the Electronic Age. 鈥淢aking learning more fun by building in game elements can only be a good thing. Manipulating people in the workplace (say, to make them more loyal or productive) or the political sphere, and 鈥榤onetizing鈥� our every gamified interaction, would be the bad things.鈥�

David Kirschner, research assistant at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, agreed. 鈥淧ositive aspects of gamification will be used to get people to improve their health, motivate rehabilitation after accidents, think about, simulate, get people motivated, and teach people about solving real-life problems,鈥� he wrote. 鈥淣egative outcomes are mainly in advertising. It鈥檚 insidious really, using game elements to get people to buy more [things] they don鈥檛 need. It鈥檚 especially bad when gamification-fueled consumer culture targets kids. Companies that use games in whatever it is that they鈥檙e doing really need to be reflective and think about what they鈥檙e doing past themselves. Nike or McDonald鈥檚, for example, couldn鈥檛 care less about the effects of making buying their products fun. They just want to sell more things to people. Companies should take responsibility for the tremendous power they wield in society. I fear they won鈥檛, but I hope they do. Then of course, you can also say I hope consumers鈥攑eople experiencing gamification on the ground鈥攁re also aware (as best they can be) of the games they are engaging with, what are their purposes, who developed them, why, and so on. We鈥檝e all got to be very critical when fun can mask trouble.鈥�

“It鈥檚 insidious really, using game elements to get people to buy more [things] they don鈥檛 need. It鈥檚 especially bad when gamification-fueled consumer culture targets kids. Companies that use games in whatever it is that they鈥檙e doing really need to be reflective and think about what they鈥檙e doing past themselves. Nike or McDonald鈥檚, for example, couldn鈥檛 care less about the effects of making buying their products fun. They just want to sell more things to people. Companies should take responsibility for the tremendous power they wield in society. I fear they won鈥檛, but I hope they do. Then of course, you can also say I hope consumers鈥攑eople experiencing gamification on the ground鈥攁re also aware (as best they can be) of the games they are engaging with, what are their purposes, who developed them, why, and so on. We鈥檝e all got to be very critical when fun can mask trouble.鈥�

Microsoft and Harvard Internet researcher聽danah boyd聽said behavioral manipulation is positive and negative. 鈥淕amification is the new public relations or the new advertising and marketing,鈥� she responded. 鈥淚t will seep into many aspects of life without us even acknowledging it. It鈥檒l become a central part of neoliberal ideology without folks even noticing it. Why? Because it鈥檚 a modern-day form of manipulation. And like all cognitive manipulation, it can help people and it can hurt people. And we will see both.鈥�

Vicki Suter, director of the California Virtual Campus, noted, 鈥淕ames are social networks, even single-player games (there are communities of people who play them who interact a lot with each other online鈥攐utside the gaming environment). It makes all kinds of sense that as social networking has emerged, so have gaming interfaces to social networking activities (which, when you think about it, pretty much sums up human behavior). I still wonder about children and young adults confusing games with reality. The research about this is mixed. And gaming itself can be a terrible addiction鈥擨鈥檓 not sure what the proliferation of gaming interfaces in non-game settings will mean to those with the addiction.鈥�

Paul Jones, clinical associate professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, added: 鈥淚, too, had a Cocoa Marsh Captain Midnight Decoder鈥攂ut I hated Cocoa Marsh. Gamification in marketing has a long history longer and more enduring than Cocoa Marsh or even Captain Midnight. It鈥檚 as inescapable as coupons or bottle top collecting or the lotteries. Gamification is an overblown term for old-school marketing. Yes it works. Yes we use it. No, it鈥檚 no game changer (pun intended).鈥�

Some are concerned about making everything a competition; others
say compelling design can lead to exploitable information disclosures

Among the respondents who agreed that game elements will become more prevalent in online interaction were many who pointed out dangers that may lie ahead. 鈥淪ome aspects of games, e.g., competition and narrative, are powerful factors in human behavior,鈥� said聽Larry Lannom, vice president at the Corporation for National Research Initiatives. 鈥淲hether or not the increased ability to manipulate people is an overall benefit is an open question.鈥�

Susan Crawford, a Harvard professor and former technology policy assistant in the Obama White House, said requiring people to implement the mechanics of reward-based gaming as a common expectation is not optimal. 鈥淚f everything was a game, no one would have a reason to invent; any metric corrupts, as people shape their behavior to ensure that they come out on top. There have to be other routes to excellence in work, health, and education; there have to be ways to explore, invent, create, and avoid鈥攊t can鈥檛 be that we鈥檒l be adding up points for every salient element of our lives.鈥�
She added: 鈥淓xcuse me, now, while I check whether I鈥檝e been mentioned on Twitter.鈥�

Brian Harvey, a lecturer at the University of California-Berkeley said the embedding of game elements in Internet activity is often aimed at extracting something of value, often from people who are not aware of this invisible, permissionless transaction. 鈥淭his is a matter for intervention, not prediction,鈥� he declared. 鈥淚t should be illegal, with serious penalties (life in prison, for example), to use information ostensibly gathered for one purpose for something else without an explicit, competent, well-informed opt-in by the person who legitimately owns the information鈥攏ot third parties, such as pharmacies or search engines or ISPs. Someone who puts up a game-like thing in order to coax people into providing free labor, or in order to collect information for any commercial purpose, is committing a profound violation of human rights.鈥�

鈥淚f everything was a game, no one would have a reason to invent; any metric corrupts, as people shape their behavior to ensure that they come out on top. There have to be other routes to excellence in work, health, and education; there have to be ways to explore, invent, create, and avoid鈥攊t can鈥檛 be that we鈥檒l be adding up points for every salient element of our lives. Excuse me, now, while I check whether I鈥檝e been mentioned on Twitter.鈥�

David Cohn, founder and director of journalism organization Spot.Us, wrote, 鈥淕ames are great, but there are other motivating factors. If everything is a game, then no game is fun.鈥� An anonymous respondent noted, 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want your online driver鈥檚 license application to play games with you. Most usage of the Web is goal-driven and practical. Gamifying that sort of thing is just annoying.鈥� An anonymous respondent said, 鈥淔or high-functioning knowledge workers, gamification is likely to be perceived as an insult to intelligence.鈥� Another anonymous respondent sarcastically wrote of the prospect of more game-like approaches in interactions, 鈥淚 think I鈥檒l go have a tooth pulled.鈥�

Lisa E. Phillips, senior research analyst at eMarketer, Inc., responded, 鈥淏y 2020, gamification techniques will still work well for marketers and will have some educational applications. But turning everything into a 鈥榞ame,鈥� like 鈥榗hecking in鈥� via Foursquare, has proved to be of passing interest, at best. There will have to be strong rewards or feedback loops to sustain consumer interest in a game that seeks to educate or change health behaviors, for example.鈥�

Peter Mitchell, chief creative officer at Salter-Mitchell, a company that builds behavior-change programs, wrote, 鈥淕amification will grow, but people will still want straightforward ways to accomplish many tasks. There is a point where too many feedback loops and rewards programs is just clutter.鈥�

Cooperation trumps collaboration, gamification is hyped,
gaming fads come and go and they will not be transformative

Many survey participants remarked that gamification is a 鈥減assing fad,鈥� including technology consultant聽Stowe Boyd, who went on to explain that it is only 鈥渙f interest to a small segment of the social tools developer community.鈥� Boyd predicted: 鈥淚n some segments it will have a long-term impact, but only in circumstances where it is integral, and not as a gloss or veneer. Much of what gamification seeks to do鈥攖o increase involvement, and foster certain collective behaviors in groups of people鈥攁ctually runs counter to the fragmentation of user experience online. The rise of apps means that users are spreading their time out over a larger number of more specialized tools, and tool developers try to counter that through inducements to stay, or return frequently, and to align activities with others: a forced viralization. A much more profitable set of ideas? As people are made more autonomous, they naturally move away from collaboration, where users share the same aims and reward systems鈥攖oward cooperation鈥攚here users do not necessarily share long-term goals or values. Gamification has little use in cooperation, and that is the area of social software that is least realized at this time, and which I predict will be the highest-growth area in the future.鈥�

Buzzmachine blogger聽Jeff Jarvis, director of the entrepreneurial journalism program at City University of New York, wrote, 鈥淕amification is overblown, but that could simply be because I am not a gamer.聽Angry Birds聽was fun while it lasted, but it didn鈥檛 change my life.鈥� Freelance writer and editor聽Glyn Moody聽agreed, 鈥淎s its absurd name suggests, 鈥榞amification鈥� is little more than the buzzword du jour: It鈥檚 the 鈥榩ush technology鈥� of 2011.鈥�

“There may be areas where virtual simulation can add an extra dimension that can enhance a human experience in otherwise impossible ways, and this may indeed be linked to 鈥榞amification鈥� concepts, but games and gaming have been part of the bigger human experience for far too long to expect some sort of (relatively speaking) immediate and radical change.”

Sandra Braman, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and an expert on information policy, said a lot of energy will be invested in embedding game principles across more human activities between now and 2020, but she expects uneven results. 鈥淔or all of the reasons that critics of game theory have identified over the years regarding its inability to capture the full range of human motivations, perceptions, cognitions, and practices, I believe there will be efforts to gamify much of what we do, but that much of that will just come and go as fads,鈥� she wrote.

An anonymous respondent agreed, writing, 鈥淕amification and social structures will be seen as a 鈥榝ad,鈥� experience, burn out, and then fall out of favor in the next ten years, except with certain segments of the population. I doubt it will make huge inroads with 鈥榮erious鈥� fields like K-12 education, work and career, or the health industry.鈥�

Rich Osborne, senior IT innovator at the University of Exeter, expects that gamified approaches, while getting a fair amount of publicity today, are likely to be contained to about the same level of engagement as they have had in the past in different forms. 鈥溾�楪amification鈥� is little more than a fad,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here may be areas where virtual simulation can add an extra dimension that can enhance a human experience in otherwise impossible ways, and this may indeed be linked to 鈥榞amification鈥� concepts, but games and gaming have been part of the bigger human experience for far too long to expect some sort of (relatively speaking) immediate and radical change.鈥�

Barry Parr, owner and analyst for MediaSavvy, asked, 鈥淩emember back in the 2010s when we thought gamification was going to change everything? What were we thinking?鈥�

Interactive gaming elements are simply tools for engagement;
it’s really all about designing pleasing, effective online experiences

Duane Degler, principal consultant at Design for Context, creators of interactive applications, said all the talk about gamification is emerging from a need for better design. 鈥淭here is always a role in some human activities for collaboration and competition, as well as fun,鈥� he said. 鈥淎t one level, the current fad for gamification seeks to increase engagement in software/tasks where the online/computing experience is far weaker and more rigid than its non-online human experiences. However, that is a rallying call to designers to enrich current experience. If past experiences with other media and social change are any guide, it seems unlikely that there will be dramatic increases in gaming models into environments where they do not currently exist socially, professionally, or societally.鈥�

Sociologist and popular speaker聽Amber Case, CEO of Geoloqi, noted that game design has always been woven into human interaction but the digital age is upping the ante. 鈥淕ame mechanics and leveling up have been used in the military, the orchestra, schools, and in general professions since the beginning of human civilization,鈥� she observed. 鈥淏efore that, tribes and groups had ways of earning reputation by leveling up. The levels were often visually displayed or added to the human body or dwelling. Game mechanics are simply a visual quantification of what has traditionally been a qualitative feature of everyday life. Game mechanics have simply highlighted this idea and brought it to the minds of designers and developers. The reason it is a big deal right now is that there is are a great number of new systems being developed right now, similar to what humans likely experienced in the first tribes and cities. The idea of game mechanics will simply blend into the idea of experience design or motivation design and marketing, making it easier for users to stick with a new experience.鈥�

“Game mechanics are simply a visual quantification of what has traditionally been a qualitative feature of everyday life. Game mechanics have simply highlighted this idea and brought it to the minds of designers and developers. The reason it is a big deal right now is that there is are a great number of new systems being developed right now, similar to what humans likely experienced in the first tribes and cities. The idea of game mechanics will simply blend into the idea of experience design or motivation design and marketing, making it easier for users to stick with a new experience.”

An anonymous survey participant said, 鈥淕amification is a natural approach to design, given it is a maturing paradigm of a type of engagement with interactive devices. As it is one of the more successful and popular ones, it鈥檚 natural that its more-exuberant practitioners push it as something of a panacea approach. The old saying of 鈥榠f you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail鈥� may apply. It鈥檚 exceedingly useful for education and training using applications like simulations and possibly useful and experimental when applied elsewhere.鈥�

Another anonymous respondent noted, 鈥淗umans are highly prone to addictive behavior. The science of understanding and exploiting this will increase over time.鈥�

Bob Frankston, computing pioneer, co-founder of Software Arts, and co-developer and marketer of VisiCalc, wrote, 鈥淚t鈥檚 really more about rich information than making everything play.鈥� Valerie Bock, technical services lead at Q2Learning, LLC and VCB Consulting, agreed. 鈥淭he answer is not to make games of everything,鈥� she said, 鈥渂ut rather to pay attention to the reasons people are engaged by games, and incorporate features like rapid feedback, recognition for extraordinary performance, and prompt response to mastery at one level with additional, more complex responsibilities at the next, into jobs and learning activities. Gamification fans will figure this out before 2020.鈥�

An anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淥ur current society is not properly educated to make best use of the information at their fingertips. Game-oriented designs and user interfaces can help people access facts and better understand things that might be interesting or useful鈥�Game theory can be used as a manipulation and so is a natural for the advertising/marketing industry. That industry has a lot of money to throw at this, and it seems inevitable.鈥�

Vili Lehdonvirta, researcher at the University of Tokyo and visiting scholar at the Helsinki Institute for Information Technology, said as a wider audience begins to experience game mechanics in new settings participants will adapt to using them more often. 鈥淭he idea that marketing messages, services, and situations need to be designed with human psychology in mind to best serve their purpose will continue to win acceptance,鈥� she explained, 鈥渘ot necessarily because of the efforts of gamification consultants, but because of the general desire of businesses and governments to understand and influence consumers and voters. The increasing popularity of online and mobile games means that consumers will become increasingly familiar with concepts and structures employed in games, and thus these will also be increasingly usable in marketing.鈥�

Adrian Schofield, manager of the applied research unit at the Johannesburg (Africa) Centre for Software Engineering, noted, 鈥淲hen Apple and Windows came on the scene, it was all about the graphical user interface and the fantastic advance from text input and output. Gamification is just the next step along the innovation path to making it easier and more intuitive for humans to interact with digital tools.鈥�

Lyrics to the song聽A Spoon Full of Sugar聽from the Disney film聽Mary Poppins聽were the only answer supplied by one respondent: 鈥淚n every job that must be done, there is an element of fun鈥攜ou find the fun and snap! The job鈥檚 a game. And every task you undertake becomes a piece of cake鈥擜 lark! A spree! It鈥檚 very clear to see that a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down鈥攖he medicine go down-wown, the medicine go down. Just a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down, in a most delightful way.鈥�

People in interactive networks can be manipulated; this is dangerous;
could gamification approaches lead to a聽Hunger Games聽world?

Many survey participants who expect game-like interactivity to be widespread online commented that it will often be an invisible function that drives transactions. 鈥淸Gamification] will be so pervasive, we won鈥檛 even think of it as gamification; it will just 鈥榖e,鈥欌�� wrote one anonymous respondent. Another wrote, 鈥淧eople are easily manipulated through gamification, so it is likely that this will play a signification role in shaping society. Humans are not solitary creatures and therefore the social feedback that they receive through 鈥榞ames鈥� gives can give them the motivation to do most anything. Throughout history society has tried to bypass the human connection with technology, but really we need both to survive.鈥�

“There is no reason to believe that the most powerful economic entities are not going to use that knowledge (rewards, feedback loops) to spur interaction, boost loyalty (especially brand loyalty), and provide neural pleasures when consumers and customers do what they鈥檙e told. I do not see any positive in this development and am concerned about the use of that knowledge not only by economic entities but by political ones as well.聽In addition, the ability to self-induce pleasure at the neural level through the use of computer programs will further eliminate the need [for] others and the pleasures they can spontaneously provide, hence further deskilling us in those social psychological skills necessary to experience pleasurable interaction with other people.”

As various aspects of science and technology evolve at an accelerating pace of change, there are concerns over the motivations of the organizations that have the money to do the type of research and development that best leverages the influences of networked interactivity. This becomes especially significant if motives are hidden so people are unaware of the potential consequences of their actions.

鈥淭he findings yielded by the emerging field of neuroscience provide powerful tools to understand and hence manipulate the human brain,鈥� said聽Simon Gottschalk, sociology professor at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. 鈥淚n light of advances in neuromarketing, there is no reason to believe that the most powerful economic entities are not going to use that knowledge (rewards, feedback loops) to spur interaction, boost loyalty (especially brand loyalty), and provide neural pleasures when consumers and customers do what they鈥檙e told. I do not see any positive in this development and am concerned about the use of that knowledge not only by economic entities but by political ones as well.

鈥淚n addition, the ability to self-induce pleasure at the neural level through the use of computer programs will further eliminate the need [for] others and the pleasures they can spontaneously provide, hence further deskilling us in those social psychological skills necessary to experience pleasurable interaction with other people. The gamification of everyday life is not unlike teledildonics鈥攁t a neural level. Both enable users to experience pleasure without asking them to develop and deploy the social psychological skills typically required to enjoy those experiences.鈥�

An anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淚nterestingly, there are dozens and dozens of dystopian science fiction stories, from the recent聽Hunger Games聽to crusty old classics like聽Rollerball聽(the 1970s version) that are about how gamification leads to a society where we treat humans like disposable game avatars. I bring this up because successful pop culture fantasies generally reflect genuine public anxieties. There are very few models of a progressive, happy gamified future outside of sociological theory like Jane McGonigal鈥檚. So if we are going to see strong gamification outside the circumscribed world of entertainment (and this is a huge world鈥攙ideo games are the dominant form of entertainment today), then it will be done in subtle or even sneaky ways. Given all our anxieties about gamification leading to a聽Hunger Games聽world, I think people will be suspicious of game mechanics being introduced into other areas of their lives鈥攅specially in work and government contexts. That鈥檚 just my hunch, based on what I鈥檓 seeing in pop culture.鈥�

People don’t like being gamed: some know
and dislike it when they are being played

Social engineering, design, and business consultant聽Mack Reed, principal at Factoid Labs, expects many people will refuse to engage with game-based interactions. 鈥淕amification is a fad in much the way that MySpace鈥檚 overly generous make-your-own-space stance seemed like the ultimate freedom but led to horribly unusable Web design and in part contributed to the company鈥檚 demise,鈥� he explained. 鈥淕ame mechanics will indeed be part of the lingua franca, but it will be seen as what it is鈥攁nother tool of commerce trying a little too hard to wring personalized interactions out of mass behavior. Recognition of gamified interactions is growing鈥攑eople know when they鈥檙e being played, and before too long they will tire of it en masse and refuse to engage with any but the most-personalized and meaningful gamified interactions.鈥�

“There is the strong possibility of a substantial fraction of the population choosing to 鈥榣eave the game,鈥� as the controlling nature of the gamification becomes more overt and the complexity of playing the game increases. Commercial interests will continue to attempt to sublimate the gamification, however their tendency is to form competing blocks which greatly reduces their effect, partly due to the thankful presence of anti-trust and consumer-protection regulation in most countries. Nonetheless, I continue to be amazed at how readily many do accept some level of gamification.”

An anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淕amification shares the same root as gaming the system and hunting game. Even by 2020, I expect humans to learn the game well enough to know when they are being gamed by gamification. Sure, some will still buy the deodorant that the ads make most appealing, but they will generally do so knowingly. They will remain one step ahead of the gamification. They will spot the feedback loop before it loops again, and intentionally break it鈥攌eep it guessing. Sure, gamification will become a huge industry, but it will not be an advancement.鈥�

Sivasubramanian Muthusamy, president of the Internet Society-India Chennai, said, 鈥淯sers will grow tired of mechanized surveys and worthless rewards. Even if the social networks implement gamification in manner that makes the rewards appear valuable to the users, gamification in a wide variety of activities will cause behavioral fatigue.鈥�

Paul Gardner-Stephen, humanitarian telecommunications fellow at Flinders University, said commercial interests that try to overcome consumer rejection by using game design in a veiled manner may be identified and asked to change their practices. 鈥淭here is the strong possibility of a substantial fraction of the population choosing to 鈥榣eave the game,鈥� as the controlling nature of the gamification becomes more overt and the complexity of playing the game increases,鈥� he said. 鈥淐ommercial interests will continue to attempt to sublimate the gamification, however their tendency is to form competing blocks which greatly reduces their effect, partly due to the thankful presence of anti-trust and consumer-protection regulation in most countries.聽Nonetheless, I continue to be amazed at how readily many do accept some level of gamification, e.g., the prevalence of petrol discount vouchers in Australia, even though the discounts are typically less than 4% in real value, so perhaps I will be surprised.鈥�

Rob Scott, chief technology officer and intelligence liaison at Nokia, has a solution to the problem with the variability in consumer preferences. 鈥淲hile the technology will be widely used, it will not be intrinsic to common daily functions due to how quickly it irritates the consumer,鈥� he said. 鈥淥pt-in activities such as contesting, surveys, and even assisted search may offer the ability to control how much gamification is presented to the user.鈥�

Some see it as a boon to problem-solving
and a great way to deliver more-effective education

While some respondents don鈥檛 see game-based learning and problem-solving through the use of 鈥渟erious games鈥� gaining much ground between now and 2020, others are more optimistic. 鈥淚f the adaptive engine that makes a game more challenging and smarter can be applied to a learning environment, complete with rewards, it may help to make a much more immersive and tailored learning environment with dramatic results,鈥� said聽Wesley George, principal engineer for the Advanced Technology Group at Time Warner Cable

“Greater understanding of divergent cognitive approaches to problem solving could be more widely accepted through the involvement of teams of players from diverse cultural backgrounds. The 鈥榳inners鈥� of those who play these games are, in part, winners because of improved communication skills facilitated within the context of the gaming experience. As the complexity of the game increases, teams who are better at problem solving and communication are the ones most likely to win the game. It is not difficult to extrapolate how these skills translate into solving complex problems outside of the gaming context.”

An anonymous survey respondent noted, 鈥淎s an employee of a large training company, I already see this happening. Gamification makes an unpleasant task more pleasant and it is an effective way to teach.鈥� Another anonymous participant wrote, 鈥淕aming functionality will continue to grow and be used in more and more facets of our lives. People will receive training on the job, be exposed through education and development programs, have the ability to learn about areas that are important to them using this technology and social strategy. It will allow people to understand complex topics faster and with more nuances, and make the learning process more anticipated and less to be feared or avoided. New ideas will spread faster as the ability to educate more people becomes easier and quicker.鈥�

David Lowe, innovation and technology manager, National Telecommunications Cooperative Association, wrote, 鈥淕reater understanding of divergent cognitive approaches to problem solving could be more widely accepted through the involvement of teams of players from diverse cultural backgrounds. The 鈥榳inners鈥� of those who play these games are, in part, winners because of improved communication skills facilitated within the context of the gaming experience. As the complexity of the game increases, teams who are better at problem solving and communication are the ones most likely to win the game. It is not difficult to extrapolate how these skills translate into solving complex problems outside of the gaming context.鈥�

Mark J. Franklin, director of computing services in the school of engineering at Dartmouth College pointed out that in 2011 online players used the game聽Foldit聽to discover the structure of a retrovirus enzyme after it had baffled scientists (http://1.usa.gov/yArxrV). 鈥淲e have learned to use technology to capture people鈥檚 attention and energy, and are now learning how to turn technology-based gaming to productive use,鈥� he said 鈥淗umans are clever and inventive, and we will find and exploit many more ways to use games to further our goals.鈥�

鈥淥rganizations will become more sophisticated in its implementation,鈥� responded聽Perry Hewitt, chief digital officer at Harvard University, 鈥渁nd schools and governments in particular will use it to drive preferred activities in ways that benefit society as a whole. As social networks spread behaviors (and perhaps even moods and obesity) virally, the traditional public service announcement will be supplanted by gamification to drive 鈥榥udge.鈥欌��

Robert Renaud, a vice president at Dickinson Collage and a member of the EDUCAUSE Advanced Core Technologies Initiative Design Group, said, 鈥淐onsidering gamification in this broad framework, it will by 2020 be a more powerful force as a means to incentivize users to participate in services, to measure outcomes, and to help build social networks.鈥�

Alan Bachers, director of the Neurofeedback Foundation, said the interface capabilities of advanced digital game approaches will allow people to self-actualize. 鈥淢ovements like the Quantified Self will make everything we do into our own game of self-improvement, learning, and real-time advances uniquely crafted to how we learn and what we want to learn or become proficient at,鈥� he explained. 鈥淧eople鈥檚 ability to advance in any field will be self-controlled, automatically recorded, and unique skill sets will emerge as needed. People will morph themselves into whatever they want at will creating an infinitely diverse skill packet for jobs that emerge by the day, the tiniest number of which exist today.鈥�

And聽Frank Odasz, president of Lone Eagle Consulting and an expert on 21st century workforce readiness, predicted, 鈥淎s we mature toward meaningful applications the game will be how to make an exponential impact on real-world problems in collaboration with others. Serious games such as basic survival and making a real difference in the lives of others suffering desperate realities will become the measure of one鈥檚 purpose in life, and value to the world. Self-actualization methodologies will replace much of the silly social fluff as people mature in their thinking about their responsibility to use well the power at their fingertips.鈥� An anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淗umanity likes to be drawn into games as 鈥榙istraction.鈥� If more of what is made available is presented in game-like environments, more people will be involved, possibly creating crowd-sourced solutions to social, economic, and ecological problems.鈥�

But some people in the trenches of education have their doubts. 鈥淭he 鈥榞ame theory鈥� school is overblown,鈥� said聽Ron Smith, bridge coordinator at Helen Bernstein High School in the Los Angeles Unified School District, 鈥淚t suggests that because students of a certain age like to play games, they will like to play instructional games, ones that are designed to be fun, yet filled with curricular goals. I am not convinced that there is a correlation between gaming and academic success in low-achieving students, and high achievers will thrive anywhere.鈥�

Gamification isn’t easy; costs and people’s personal
time constraints will limit its practicality. Expect ‘leaderboard fatigue’

Gardner-Stephen聽and others pointed out that the planning and implementation of gamification can be costly. 鈥淢any of these corporate games require the presentation of rewards that, if fully exploited, would be cost-negative for the enterprises,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he growth of data sharing among citizens may produce coordinated mechanisms for exploiting these flaws in the games to the net detriment of the corporations, thus disrupting the games. For instance, if consumers in Australia coordinated to always purchase the maximum amount of fuel with their dockets, they would extract perhaps three times more discount from the game than if they continue to play individually. Combined with other game features that allow the discount to be doubled or tripled (e.g., spend $5 in store for another 4% off), resulting in total discounts that exceed the revenues used to fund them. Game theory can work both ways, a fact that corporations may come to regret.鈥�

Kris Davis, a user-experience designer for Webvisible, said it takes work to ramp up to gameplay and that will always limit participant buy-in. 鈥淕ames still are time-consuming in that you have to learn the game, play the game to understand the game, and keep playing the game to keep up. Gaming just is not something that works in absolutely every scenario.鈥�

“Effective and engaging games are expensive and difficult to produce, and this will limit the broad applicability of gamification. If I鈥檓 wrong about this, it could be because so many minds have been shaped by game experiences that our thinking about the character of media will inevitably have gone there, in which case game structure may be so inherent that the cost and difficulty of production might be reduced. I don鈥檛 think this will be the case; though I see intense game influence among some, I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 pervasive. And I think there are whole populations that just don鈥檛 鈥榞et鈥� games.”

An anonymous respondent said, 鈥淢ost people will remain too overwhelmed by their schedules to have time or patience for many more games. The choice of games may change, but the amount of time people spend playing games probably will not. Attempts to interject gaming into many other daily activities would probably be seen by most people as an annoying intrusion.鈥�

鈥淲hile gamification will continue to grow, there are limits to the amount of time and attention people will give to gamification systems,鈥� said聽Steven Swimmer, a consultant who previously worked in digital leadership roles for a major broadcast TV network and a major museum. 鈥淧eople will pick a few systems in which they are willing to 鈥榩lay鈥� but will ignore the rest. It will be difficult for people to enlist their friends to play along, except for a few of the most compelling services. People will have gaming fatigue and annoyance at being asked to jump through hoops for no real reason other than a 鈥榖adge.鈥欌��

An anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淚 expect scenario two, with only the note that it will not work nearly as well as people currently imagine it will, as the effects of novelty-seeking and leaderboard fatigue force gamified aspects of life into cycles of almost constant, short-term updating.鈥� Another said, 鈥淭he challenge of gamification is that it requires opt-in, rule understanding, and active and continual engagement. That鈥檚 a lot for the busy people of 2020 to take on in an every day, every activity, kind of way.鈥�

Jon Lebkowsky, Internet pioneer and principal at Polycot Associates LLC, said by 2020 the complexity and expense of game-type dynamics in online interactions will still be too high for gamification to become more prevalent. 鈥淓ffective and engaging games are expensive and difficult to produce, and this will limit the broad applicability of gamification. If I鈥檓 wrong about this, it could be because so many minds have been shaped by game experiences that our thinking about the character of media will inevitably have gone there, in which case game structure may be so inherent that the cost and difficulty of production might be reduced. I don鈥檛 think this will be the case; though I see intense game influence among some, I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 pervasive. And I think there are whole populations that just don鈥檛 鈥榞et鈥� games.鈥�

Katrina Griffin, e-marketing strategist for Medseek, said, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe companies will be willing to put the budget dollars in this area just yet. Instead, budget dollars will be allocated towards big data and apps. I see this occurring farther into the future.鈥澛� An anonymous respondent added, 鈥淚t is much more difficult and expensive to 鈥榞amify鈥� things than most people realize. Besides, once someone builds a good system to game something we will by our natures become bored with it and want something different. It will take a long time.鈥�

There’s already too much pandering
to people’s passion to be entertained

Naomi S. Baron, director of the Center for Teaching, Research, and Learning at American University was highly critical of gamification as applied to education. 鈥溾�楨ngagement鈥� and 鈥榝un鈥� are not the same concepts,鈥� she wrote. 鈥淚n education, clearly we want students鈥攁t all levels鈥攖o take pleasure in learning. However, our education system is increasingly privileging 鈥榝un鈥� at the expense of serious discourse. The same type of shift can be seen in presentation of the news鈥攏etworks are replacing straightforward newscasts with human-interest stories and sensationalism. More broadly, gamification (at least in the United States) may be narrowing our understanding of what it means to learn and our spectrum of experience.鈥�

An anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淚t is possible that people will fully buy into having their day-to-day behavior conditioned by electronic treats, like tall hamsters; no one who observes contemporary national politics could claim that Americans have too much native intelligence or innate dignity to submit to this sort of obedience training. But I cling to the hope that we are better than that.鈥� Another said, 鈥淚 fear we may be so ready to dumb down to the lowest common denominator that anything requiring attention and thought will be bypassed for the 鈥榝eed me鈥� option.鈥�

Donald G. Barnes, visiting professor at Guangxi University in China and former director of the Science Advisory Board at the US Environmental Protection Agency, agreed. 鈥淕ames are, and will continue to be, primarily for entertainment,鈥� he said. 鈥淐ertainly, gamification has a role in education, training, and work; but that role is limited, at best, and diversionary, at worst. Some people have learning and working styles that are positively affected by a limited amount of gaming. There are few, if any, examples of instances in which gaming鈥攁s the major mode of instruction and work鈥攈as produced sustained positive results over time.鈥�

An anonymous respondent noted that some people like reward systems, writing, 鈥淔or better or worse, it鈥檚 becoming expected for normal activities to be fun, and people (especially Generation Y, downward) are used to being rewarded for every little thing they do.鈥� Another anonymous survey participant predicted, 鈥淭here will be a rush to implement these technologies, leading to a backlash because the manipulative aspects where participation provides actual value only to the provider will become apparent to the user. Further, among those who buy in, its use will exacerbate the psychology of narcissism already seen in the young.鈥�

M.C. Liang聽of the National University of Kaohsiung in Taiwan expressed concern that some people will lose themselves in the enticing online game world, writing, 鈥淔ewer distinctions between virtual reality and reality will be identifiable. It is likely that a significant group of people will be 鈥榯rapped鈥� in the communication network, especially teens.鈥�

鈥淭he more realistic virtual reality becomes,鈥� responded聽Paul McFate, an online communications specialist based in Provo, Utah, 鈥渢he greater the toll on our real social connections, and the greater the impact on GDP through lost productivity. For some, assimilation will be inevitable.鈥�

An anonymous respondent made a reference to media theorist Neil Postman鈥檚 well-known critique of popular culture鈥檚 negative influences on people鈥檚 information diets, citing his most famous work and writing, 鈥淲e already are living in the world of聽Amusing Ourselves to Death.鈥� Another anonymous survey participant wrote, 鈥淔un, rewards, etc., to spur engagement? I worry what that does to our brains. I鈥檓 sure there are addictive properties of games in terms of playing for reward, but what does that mean in terms of gratification? I will no longer be enough to learn something just to learn it? Or accomplish something just to accomplish it? I cringe a bit when I see that iPad commercial narrated by Peter Coyote, where we are told we can learn Chinese, watch TED videos, play piano, etc., all from our iPad. There is no need to touch or look at anything else. Should I have a bracket installed on my head, so that my iPad is in front of my face 24/7?鈥�

Ted Coopman, a lecturer in the department of communication studies at San Jose State University and member of the executive committee of the Association of Internet Researchers, said game mechanics may be used effectively to flip 鈥渆ntertainment鈥� to good use for serious purposes. 鈥淕amification plays to some very basic aspects of human nature and therefore has 鈥榮tickiness,鈥� that is, it works well on variety of levels both cognitively and economically,鈥� he wrote. 鈥淐ommon impulses such as community and identity鈥攖hings we already know are effective in increasing and maintaining interest in many activities鈥攆it well with game-style pursuits. Gamification works and it can be a productive way of approaching life and work. Perhaps this will turn the idea of 鈥榠nfotainment鈥� into a positive as opposed to a negative force.鈥�

This trend is still in its early stages; 2020 is too soon
to expect a massive embrace of game-centered activities

A number of respondents who said gamification will not be prevalent by 2020 see its potential but say the technology will not yet be up to the standards necessary for wider adoption. 鈥淚鈥檝e been interested in this for five years now, and worked on it some,鈥� said Microsoft principal researcher聽Jonathan Grudin. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very slow going. It definitely won鈥檛 be out there in 2020 for most people, most of the time.鈥�

Jim Jansen, an associate professor in the College of Information Sciences and Technology at Penn State University sits on the boards of eight international technology journals. He said, 鈥淚鈥檓 not sure this will happen by 2020, but the idea of work, learning, and training as entertainment will certainly increase in usage.鈥�

“How much gamification we get and how much it influences widespread cultural trends will depend on how well game design is taken up by hosts and organizers of social and cultural institutions and built into their rituals. If churches and service clubs like Rotary and Kiwanis decide they can better carry out their mission by moving some playful donation activities onto their members鈥� smart phones, we will have crossed an important cultural barrier.”

One anonymous respondent was certain it鈥檚 too soon, writing, 鈥淐urrent attempts at gamification are crude and not particularly effective. Game-like elements may be incorporated into an increasing number of daily activities, but gamification on the whole is too problematic to catch on in a big way.鈥�

Kevin Novak, co-chair of the eGov Working Group for the World Wide Web Consortium, commented, 鈥淕amification has grown in use and in public knowledge over the past five years. Many have found success in specific applications in educational and other settings. Like medical research, a five-year span of findings and information, is not enough to judge whether it should become the predominant way of delivering, teaching, or digesting content available via the Web. The Web, although having changed in depth and capacity over the past ten years, still continues under the same basic premises. Options to display and interact with information and data have continued to evolve. Gamification will continue as an option where applicable but will not become the main connection point in 2020.鈥�

An anonymous respondent remarked, 鈥淟eaders鈥� prejudice against fun will limit growth.鈥�

Another anonymous participant said the timing will depend upon the uptake of these approaches by common cultural organizations, writing, 鈥淗ow much gamification we get and how much it influences widespread cultural trends will depend on how well game design is taken up by hosts and organizers of social and cultural institutions and built into their rituals. If churches and service clubs like Rotary and Kiwanis decide they can better carry out their mission by moving some playful donation activities onto their members鈥� smart phones, we will have crossed an important cultural barrier.鈥�

Gamification?
Can’t we come up with a better term? (Maybe have a contest?)

Many people think the term gamification is awkward, misleading, or so difficult to define it obscures more than it describes.
鈥淕amification describes a structure with accurate feedback,鈥� said聽Pamela Rutledge, director of the Media Psychology Research Center at Fielding Graduate University. 鈥淚t transfers motivation back to the individual by engaging fundamental human drives: curiosity, connection, accomplishment, and social validation. This is not a new idea鈥�It is not necessarily a gaming situation, but a transparent one, when you receive accurate feedback and rewards for your efforts and accomplishments, and it is more motivating and engaging (and effective) to give and get feedback sooner rather than later. I am grateful that gaming has reintroduced these concepts, but there will be significant advances when we quit referring to these basics of human motivation and transparent communication as 鈥榞amification.鈥欌��

“Everyone sees interaction as a way of increasing communications, and therefore a way of increasing followers, loyalty, profit, etc. (whatever your specific goals are). Gamification is an easy way to spur interaction. This is an age driven by Facebook and blog comments, crowdsourcing, flash, participation, and more and more augmented reality, as we try to achieve the impossible.鈥�

鈥淏y 2020, anyone who ever used the term 鈥榞amification鈥� will be embarrassed to admit it,鈥� wrote eminent Internet researcher聽Alex Halavais聽of Quinnipiac University. 鈥淏ut that does not change the fact that most of these systems are already games of one sort or another. What motivates people to attend to and participate in a particular group will be an essential question for people working in a very wide range of fields.鈥�

An anonymous participant noted, 鈥淕amification will be everywhere, but it won鈥檛 be called that. Perhaps 鈥渋nferential sociology鈥� or some other phrase. As computer power progresses, it makes sense this extra power will be used for inferential experiences, especially in education.鈥�

Daren C. Brabham, a communications professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, commented, 鈥淭hough I can鈥檛 stand this buzzword, I do believe the concept of gamification will continue to penetrate every aspect of our lives. Gamification will even shape our interactions with government. Crowdsourcing and other incentivized models for engagement will drive public participation programs for public issues (policy design, the planning of public space, etc.).鈥�

Bryan Alexander, senior fellow at the National Institute for Technology in Liberal Education, said, 鈥淟ike 鈥榃eb 2.0鈥�, the term 鈥榞amification鈥� will fade away as the enormity of its success sweeps across the globe.鈥� And聽Vicki Suter, director of the California Virtual Campus, said, 鈥淕amification is a horrible made-up word. Just say games. Just say gaming interfaces. Just say game-design thinking.鈥�

An anonymous respondent didn鈥檛 like the use of 鈥済ame鈥� in any form to represent finding the best way to design information interfaces to be highly effective, writing, 鈥淲e are on the edge of using gaming鈥攂ad term鈥攊n personalizing learning.鈥�

Another anonymous survey participant noted, 鈥淲hat we are beginning to call 鈥榞amification鈥� really isn鈥檛 new; we are just figuring out how to bring it into the realm of software more and more. It has been 鈥榤aking waves鈥� for centuries, at least. It isn鈥檛 clear to me that this really deserves a label. It is better thought of as part of the broader picture of making software more adaptable to motivate people.鈥�

And another anonymous survey participant applied a more generalized term that may be more palatable than 鈥済amification鈥濃�攊nteraction鈥攚riting: 鈥淭he one most easily drawn observation from study after study after study of how the Internet, technology, and social media are affecting the way we communicate is that people like interaction. It鈥檚 been counted as a benefit, metric, measurement, result, impact, and countless other Internet analytics results terms. Everyone sees interaction as a way of increasing communications, and therefore a way of increasing followers, loyalty, profit, etc. (whatever your specific goals are). Gamification is an easy way to spur interaction. This is an age driven by Facebook and blog comments, crowdsourcing, flash, participation, and more and more augmented reality, as we try to achieve the impossible.鈥�

Methodology

Respondents to the Future of the Internet V survey, fielded from August 28 to October 31, 2011, were asked to consider the future of the Internet-connected world between now and 2020. They were asked to assess eight different 鈥渢ension pairs鈥� 鈥� each pair offering two different scenarios that might emerge by 2020 with the same overall subject themes and opposite outcomes. They were asked to select the most likely choice between the two statements. The tension pairs and their alternative outcomes were constructed to reflect emerging debates about the impact of the Internet. The tension pair options distill statements made by pundits, scholars, and technology analysts in the popular and trade press about the likely evolution of the Internet. They were reviewed and edited by the Pew Internet Advisory Board.

The survey results are based on a non-random online sample of 1,021 Internet experts and other Internet users, recruited via email invitation, conference invitation, or link shared on Twitter, Google Plus or Facebook by 黑料不打烊’s Imagining the Internet Center and the Pew Research Center鈥檚 Internet & American Life Project.

Since the data are based on a non-random sample, a margin of error cannot be computed, and the results are not projectable to any population other than the people participating in this sample. The study is a “snapshot” capture of people’s opinions today about what might take place tomorrow knowing what is known now. This helps illuminate issues and concerns and raises the need to address them.

Survey participants were asked to choose one of the two provided scenarios and then explain that choice. Respondents were invited to explain their answers and it is their narrative elaborations that provide the core of our reports.

Many who chose one scenario or another observed that is their hope more than their prediction. A number of survey participants said the true outcome will be a combination of both scenarios. The survey questions are written to generate detailed written responses, not to arrive any clear-cut statistical outcome, so respondent choices are not a representative measure, but…

42% agreed with the statement:

“By 2020, gamification (the use of game mechanics, feedback loops, and rewards to spur interaction and boost engagement, loyalty, fun and/or learning) will not be implemented in most everyday digital activities for most people. While game use and game-like structures will remain an important segment of the communications scene and will have been adopted in new ways, the gamification of other aspects of communications will not really have advanced much beyond being an interesting development implemented occasionally by some segments of the population in some circumstances.”

53% agreed with the statement:

“By 2020, there will have been significant advances in the adoption and use of gamification. It will be making waves on the communications scene and will have been implemented in many new ways for education, health, work, and other aspects of human connection and it will play a role in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks in their daily lives.”

>> Click here to return to the 2012 Future of the Internet survey home page

---

A selection of quote excerpts from the thousands of predictions about gamification and the Internet by 2020:

鈥淎s more and more 鈥榠ntelligence鈥� is injected into a 鈥榞amed鈥� response, it gains more and more ability to impact whatever it is applied to鈥�With the sophistication that can be inserted into interactive responses, game-like approaches will be applied across an increasingly wide sphere of human endeavors.鈥� 鈥撀�Charles Perrottet, partner at the Futures Strategy Group

鈥淕amification may be the most important social and commercial development of the next fifty years. Commercially, we may be seeing the end of the marketing orientation, possibly marking the beginning of the 鈥榞ame orientation.鈥� This will touch all aspects of the organization as it is applied to sales, production, management, and other areas of commercial practice. Socially, gamified technology will evolve and humanize many of the artificial interactions we currently endure鈥攃heck-in鈥檚, like鈥檚, shares, and their kin will all 鈥榡ust work鈥� and drive new waves of innovation in our technology.鈥� 鈥�聽Ross Rader, general manager at Hover and board member of the Canadian Internet Registration Authority

鈥淧laybor (play plus labor) and weisure (work plus leisure) will be ubiquitous.鈥� 鈥撀燩.J. Rey, managing editor of the Cyborgology blog鈥淚f everything was a game, no one would have a reason to invent; any metric corrupts, as people shape their behavior to ensure that they come out on top鈥�Excuse me, now, while I check whether I鈥檝e been mentioned on Twitter.鈥� 鈥�聽Susan Crawford, founder of OneWebDay and former Obama White House technology policy expert

鈥淚t鈥檚 a modern-day form of manipulation. And like all cognitive manipulation, it can help people and it can hurt people. And we will see both.鈥濃�� danah boyd, researcher, Microsoft and Harvard鈥檚 Berkman Center
鈥淎uthentic human connection does just fine without rewards, levels, and badges. We鈥檒l be seeing more of that.鈥� 鈥�聽Jerry Michalski, founder and president of Sociate, consultant for the Institute for the Future

鈥淐ompanies should take responsibility for the tremendous power they wield in society. I fear they won鈥檛, but I hope they do. Then of course, you can also say I hope consumers鈥攑eople experiencing gamification on the ground鈥攁re also aware (as best they can be) of the games they are engaging with, what are their purposes, who developed them, why, and so on. We鈥檝e all got to be very critical when fun can mask trouble.鈥� 鈥撀�David Kirschner, research assistant at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

鈥淕amification has little use in cooperation, and that is the area of social software that is least realized at this time, and which I predict will be the highest-growth area in the future.鈥� 鈥撀�Stowe Boyd, consultant and author

鈥淕ame mechanics will indeed be part of the lingua franca, but it will be seen as what it is鈥攁nother tool of commerce trying a little too hard to wring personalized interactions out of mass behavior.鈥� 鈥撀�Mack Reed, principal at Factoid Labs

鈥淪erious games will continue to remain mostly in the long tail rather than the fat head of the game market until serious artificial intelligence emerges.鈥� 鈥撀�John Smart, president, Acceleration Studies Foundation

鈥淏y 2020, anyone who ever used the term 鈥榞amification鈥� will be embarrassed to admit it.鈥� 鈥撀�Alex Halavais, associate professor, Quinnipiac University

鈥淧eople will increasingly expect game elements in a wide range of activities. Game-development tools will enable most people to gamify many aspects of life and work, in digital, physical, and blended environments.鈥� 鈥撀�Cathy Cavanaugh, associate professor of educational technology, University of Florida

鈥淚n light of advances in neuromarketing, there is no reason to believe that the most powerful economic entities are not going to use that knowledge鈥攔ewards, feedback loops鈥攖o spur interaction, boost loyalty鈥攅specially brand loyalty鈥攁nd provide neural pleasures when consumers and customers do what they鈥檙e told. I do not see any positive in this development and am concerned about the use of that knowledge not only by economic entities but by political ones as well. In addition, the ability to self-induce pleasure at the neural level through the use of computer programs will further eliminate the need of others and the pleasures they can spontaneously provide, hence further deskilling us in those social psychological skills necessary to experience pleasurable interaction with other people.鈥� 鈥�聽Simon Gottschalk, sociology professor at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas

The following comments are from respondents who chose to remain anonymous:

鈥淗umanity likes to be drawn into games as 鈥榙istraction.鈥� If more of what is made available is presented in game-like environments, more people will be involved, possibly creating crowd-sourced solutions to social, economic, and ecological problems.鈥�

鈥淚nterestingly, there are dozens and dozens of dystopian science fiction stories, from the recent聽Hunger Games聽to crusty old classics like聽Rollerball聽(the 1970s version) that are about how gamification leads to a society where we treat humans like disposable game avatars鈥� Given all our anxieties about gamification leading to a聽Hunger Gamesworld, I think people will be suspicious of game mechanics being introduced into other areas of their lives鈥攅specially in work and government contexts. That鈥檚 just my hunch, based on what I鈥檓 seeing in pop culture.鈥�

鈥淔or high-functioning knowledge workers, gamification is likely to be perceived as an insult to intelligence.鈥�

鈥淗umans are highly prone to addictive behavior. The science of understanding and exploiting this will increase over time.鈥�

鈥淥ur current society is not properly educated to make best use of the information at their fingertips. Game-oriented designs and user interfaces can help people access facts and better understand things that might be interesting or useful.鈥�

鈥淕aming functionality will continue to grow and be used in more and more facets of our lives. People will receive training on the job, be exposed through education and development programs, have the ability to learn about areas that are important to them using this technology and social strategy. It will allow people to understand complex topics faster and with more nuances, and make the learning process more anticipated and less to be feared or avoided. New ideas will spread faster as the ability to educate more people becomes easier and quicker.鈥�

鈥淚t will be so pervasive, we won鈥檛 even think of it as gamification; it will just 鈥榖e.鈥欌��

鈥淧eople are easily manipulated through gamification, so it is likely that this will play a signification role in shaping society. Humans are not solitary creatures and therefore the social feedback that they receive through 鈥榞ames鈥� gives can give them the motivation to do most anything. Throughout history society has tried to bypass the human connection with technology, but really we need both to survive.鈥�

鈥淚t is possible that people will fully buy into having their day-to-day behavior conditioned by electronic treats, like tall hamsters; no one who observes contemporary national politics could claim that Americans have too much native intelligence or innate dignity to submit to this sort of obedience training. But I cling to the hope that we are better than that.鈥�

鈥淚 fear we may be so ready to dumb down to the lowest common denominator that anything requiring attention and thought will be bypassed for the 鈥榝eed me鈥� option.鈥�

鈥淔or better or worse, it鈥檚 becoming expected for normal activities to be fun, and people (especially Generation Y, downward) are used to being rewarded for every little thing they do.鈥�

Lyrics to the song 鈥淎 Spoon Full of Sugar鈥� from the Disney film 鈥淢ary Poppins鈥� were the only answer supplied by one respondent: 鈥淚n every job that must be done, there is an element of fun鈥攜ou find the fun and snap! The job鈥檚 a game. And every task you undertake becomes a piece of cake鈥擜 lark! A spree! It鈥檚 very clear to see that a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down鈥攖he medicine go down-wown, the medicine go down. Just a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down, in a most delightful way.鈥�